Everyone wants to know. FOX surprisingly hasn’t pulled the trigger on Utopia, which just logged another awful 1.8M on Friday night. It’s the most obvious choice, because it’s the most obvious cancellation. But we’re talking about FIRST cancellation, and with the retooling of Utopia, it’s unlikely that it will get axed before FOX’s lineup gets shaken up due to baseball. In general, FOX is not having a great fall. The New Girl and The Mindy Project are down. Red Band Society is a flop. Gracepoint is doing so-so. Gotham could be doing better. Sleepy Hollow is down. FOX is probably trying to look “bigger picture” at coming back strong at midseason, and isn’t looking to “plug a hole”.
Which is why I think the first to go will be the combo of Selfie and Manhattan Love Story. ABC needs to plug this hole, because it directly affected the 9PM and 10PM shows. ABC needs something strong in the 8PM slot, or its going to lose one of it’s most recognizable shows. Make no mistake, SHIELD’s ratings right now are cancellation worthy, even if you’re a Marvel show. The only way to fix that is to have a strong lead in.
ABC also has a ton of midseason shows ready to go, including American Crime, Agent Carter, Whispers, The Astronaut Wives Club, and Secrets and Lies. Considering most of the rest of their lineup is performing well enough to at least finish out a 13 episode run, they can afford to axe Selfie and Manhattan Love Story after this week, and fast track a midseason replacement to premiere in November.
CBS didn’t order a ton of midseason shows, and all of its new shows aren’t performing poorly. I fully expect Scorpion and Madam Secretary to get full seasons very soon.
NBC has a potential problem with Bad Judge and A To Z, but that’s a rough timeslot. Using the middling The Biggest Loser as your lead in and Parenthood as your lead out, no potential hit wants to be stuck against Scandal.
The CW has just started premiering their shows, and Jane The Virgin has been an easy target. But look at the facts… Jane The Virgin doesn’t premiere until NEXT Monday. Even if it got cancelled after one episode, which is extremely rare, that’s a long time to go with no cancellations. The CW is also notoriously patient with their series, so picking them for a “first cancellation” of anything is a ballsy move.
ABC can afford to axe Selfie and Manhattan Love Story. Unless FOX finally pulls the trigger on Utopia, those will be the first to go.
Predicted Order Of Cancellation:
1) Selfie and Manhattan Love Story
2) Utopia
3) Red Band Society
This week, I’m predicting CBS will pick up Madam Secretary and Scorpion. FOX can’t rush to pick up Gotham, as it has no “back order”. Gotham is like Sleepy Hollow, and would just get picked up for a second season. Those ratings are not stellar enough to warrant a quick second season pickup, especially after the hit that Sleepy Hollow has taken.