I keep hoping I will hear that the Russians have announced their surrender when I listen to the news (Ukraine and Moscow are 3 hours ahead of UTC). Sadly, I think Francis Fukuyama is mostly correct in his predictions in Heading for Defeat [1]:
- Russia is heading for an outright defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent, based on a flawed assumption that Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their military would collapse immediately following an invasion. Russian soldiers were evidently carrying dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kyiv rather than extra ammo and rations. Putin at this point has committed the bulk of his entire military to this operation—there are no vast reserves of forces he can call up to add to the battle. Russian troops are stuck outside various Ukrainian cities where they face huge supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks.
- The collapse of their position could be sudden and catastrophic, rather than happening slowly through a war of attrition. The army in the field will reach a point where it can neither be supplied nor withdrawn, and morale will vaporize. This is at least true in the north; the Russians are doing better in the south, but those positions would be hard to maintain if the north collapses.
- There is no diplomatic solution to the war possible prior to this happening. There is no conceivable compromise that would be acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine given the losses they have taken at this point.
Also, Mark Hertling has some good observations on twitter as well.
I said it yesterday on @cnn, I'll say it again today.
— Mark Hertling (@MarkHertling) March 12, 2022
Having worked w/ UKR's army, I expected them to be very good. And they have been better than I expected.
Having seen Russian forces in training & exercises, I expected them to be bad. They are worse than I expected. 1/10
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1502667856772747266.html
Even though this article is titled as being to the left, it applies to the right as well.
https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/odr/a-letter-to-the-western-left-from-kyiv/
The Western Democracies and Russia signed agreements to ensure Ukraine's neutrality. They are failing miserably in keeping their word as Ukraine is falling. Point 5 in the Fukuyama piece is the most useful:
It is much better to have the Ukrainians defeat the Russians on their own, depriving Moscow of the excuse that NATO attacked them, as well as avoiding all the obvious escalatory possibilities. The Polish MiGs in particular would not add much to Ukrainian capabilities. Much more important is a continuing supply of Javelins, Stingers, TB2s, medical supplies, comms equipment, and intel sharing. I assume that Ukrainian forces are already being vectored by NATO intelligence operating from outside Ukraine.
So, you can support Ukraine without pushing for "direct involvement". Give Ukraine the supplies to fight this war.
Footnote:
[1] I disagree with his assessment of Biden's MiG decision. US publicly promised MiGs then went back on that promise. That was a very bad move. The US isn't making a very good show of saving the world. The US appears slightly less competent than Russians in how they are handling this matter.