A menacing asteroid could bring Earth's often feuding nations together, at least for a while.
Dealing with a large, dangerous asteroid that appears to have our planet in its crosshairs will require a healthy dose of international cooperation, experts say - and it's best to think about that scenario now, while we have plenty of time to make a difference. to map out a possible response. frame.
The United Nations (UN) has developed "procedures for responding to tsunamis and other major events," said Leviticus "LA" Lewis, the U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) delegate to NASA's Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO), during a press conference. briefing on Thursday (June 20). "But for an asteroid impact, we think the magnitude of it will be such that at this point we actually have to discuss what it would take for an international response on such a large scale," he added.
Part of that response would involve coordinating the evacuations of people in the potential impact zone, which would likely cover a large area of ground given how quickly asteroids move through space and how difficult it is to track the trajectory of a pass discovered asteroid. (Small uncertainties in that calculated path would result in large differences in the expected impact point on Earth. And newly discovered space rocks are the ones we should worry about; none of the large asteroids we already know of will pose a threat in the near future for our planet.)
"If we're talking about multiple countries and people having to move, and responding to a very large area, that could be a challenge," Lewis said. "We need to get organized and start discussing what it really takes to coordinate a major effort. And who would be in charge? Which organization? How would we set that up? Could it be the UN? Would it be a combination of international organizations? ? How could we actually achieve that?
Lewis discussed the results of the fifth Planetary Defense Interagency Tabletop Exercise, an asteroid threat simulation held April 2 and 3 at the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory (APL) in Maryland.
The exercise - the fifth of its kind that researchers have conducted, following similar efforts in 2013, 2014, 2016 and 2022 - aimed to "inform and assess our ability as a nation to respond effectively to the threat of a potentially hazardous asteroid or comet. NASA officials said in a statement.
The participants - nearly 100 people from various US federal agencies and international institutions - considered the following hypothetical scenario: Scientists have just discovered a relatively large asteroid that appears to be on an Earth-impact orbit. There is a 72% chance that it will hit our planet on July 12, 2038, along a long corridor that includes major cities such as Dallas, Memphis, Madrid and Algiers.
But this is just a first snapshot, with many important facts still vague or unknown. For example, it is unclear how big the asteroid is; the approximate size range is 200 feet to 2600 feet (60 to 800 meters). And researchers don't know its composition, which is a very important detail; a dense metallic or stony asteroid would behave very differently-both during a potential deflection attempt and upon impact-than a "mess" of dirt and gravel like Bennu, the space rock that NASA's OSIRIS-REx probe visited and sampled a few years ago .
"The uncertainties in these initial conditions for the exercise allowed participants to consider a particularly challenging set of circumstances," Lindley Johnson, planetary defense officer emeritus at NASA Headquarters in Washington, said in the same statement. "A major asteroid impact may be the only natural disaster that humanity has the technology to predict years in advance and take action to prevent."
Related: Potentially dangerous asteroids (images)
More knowledge about the newly discovered space rock won't be released for a while: the exercise determined that it simply disappeared behind the sun from Earth's perspective, making further telescopic observations impossible for the next seven months.
Participants in the April exercise - which was organized by PDCO and FEMA, with assistance from the U.S. State Department's Office of Space Affairs - discussed possible next steps.
They explored three major options for the near future, one of which was to do nothing until more telescope observations can be made. The other two would begin studying and possibly even developing a research mission for the threatening space rock - a flyby or a more involved, purpose-built rendezvous mission, which would move sideways along the asteroid for a long time.
The flyby would likely cost between $200 million and $400 million. The price tag of the rendezvous mission would be higher - in the neighborhood of $800 million to $1 billion.
Most senior leaders of the exercise preferred option two or three, but noted [that] political realities would limit immediate action," said an initial report on the simulation, which can be found here.
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That report contains a selection of comments from anonymous exercise participants. "The main topic of the morning was the discussion about the political nature of decision-making," read one of those comments.
Another emphasized the global nature of the challenge, as Lewis did: "International involvement at an early stage will be critical. That credibility is essential and must be established now."
The exercise did not result in ironclad rules to be followed when a threatening asteroid is discovered. (And planetary defense experts say this is indeed a matter of "when" and not "if;" at some point a big space rock will come our way.) But such regulations were not expected; rather, the main purpose was to discuss the possibilities and gain greater awareness of the steps the scientific and international community would take to deal with an incoming asteroid.
"The actual plan, the specific training outcomes, don't really mean anything," Johnson said during Thursday's briefing. "The actual process of making plans and collaborating, communicating and working with each other, that is the real purpose of this exercise."