The United Nations has released its 2023 Emissions Gap Report. And it's rather frightening. It shows that the world is not meeting the goals set in the Paris Accords (which would limit global warming to about 2.0C). Unless better action is taken, and soon, the rise will be closer to 3.0C, and that would trigger disastrous consequences. You can read the entire report here.
Here is the report's forward (written by Inger Andersen, Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Program):
Humanity is breaking all the wrong records when it comes to climate change. Greenhouse gas emissions reached a new high in 2022. In September 2023, global average temperatures were 1.8°C above pre-industrial levels. When this year is over, according to the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, it is almost certain to be the warmest year on record.
The 2023 edition of the Emissions Gap Report tells us that the world must change track, or we will be saying the same thing next year – and the year after, and the year after, like a broken record. The report finds that fully implementing and continuing mitigation efforts of unconditional nationally determined contributions (NDCs) made under the Paris Agreement for 2030 would put the world on course for limiting temperature rise to 2.9°C this century. Fully implementing conditional NDCs would lower this to 2.5°C. Given the intense climate impacts we are already seeing, neither outcome is desirable.
Progress since the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015 has shown that the world is capable of change. Greenhouse gas emissions in 2030, based on policies in place, were projected to increase by 16 per cent at the time of the agreement’s adoption. Today, the projected increase is 3 per cent. However, predicted 2030 greenhouse gas emissions must fall by 28 per cent for the Paris Agreement 2°C pathway and 42 per cent for the 1.5°C pathway.
Change must come faster in the form of economy-wide, low-carbon development transformations, with a focus on the energy transition. Countries with greater capacity and responsibility for emissions will need to take more ambitious action and provide financial and technical support to developing nations. Low- and middle-income countries, which already account for more than two thirds of global emissions, should meet their development needs with low- emissions growth, which would provide universal access to energy, lift millions out of poverty, and expand strategic industries.
The first global stocktake, concluding at COP 28 in Dubai this year, will inform the next round of NDCs, which will set new national emissions targets for 2035. Ambition in these NDCs must bring greenhouse gas emissions in 2035 to levels consistent with the 2°C and 1.5°C pathways. Stronger implementation in this decade will help to make this possible. The world needs to lift the needle out of the groove of insufficient ambition and action, and start setting new records on cutting emissions, green and just transitions, and climate finance – starting now.