Donald Trump, whether he wants to admit it or not, lost the 2020 election by more than 7 million votes. If he had even a tiny bit of statesmanship, he would have exited the political arena (as other losing candidates have done), and let the leadership of the party go to someone else.
If he had done that, inflation would probably have given a different Republican candidate a chance to win the 2024 presidential race. But Trump has no statesmanship. He only has a giant ego -- and that ego can't stomach the fact that he lost in 2024.
Since 2020, Trump has been repeating his biggest lie -- that he was cheated out of the presidency by millions of fraudulent votes engineered by Democrats. It isn't true, but he has convinced millions of his supporters that it is.
In refusing to stop telling that Big Lie, and clinging to party leadership, Trump caused his party to blow their chance of a red wave in the 2022 midterms. They barely won the House and could not win the Senate.
He didn't care though. His ego demanded that he continue. And he announced that he is seeking the Republican nomination for president in 2024.
That has created a serious dilemma for the Republican Party. Do they give Trump the nomination, or not? Either way, they are probably in trouble.
If they give him the nomination, they will probably lose the presidency again. He's been indicted for 91 separate crimes (felonies). Most voters believe he broke the law by trying to overturn the 2020 election, and he intentionally stole and shared secret U.S. government documents.
That's not going to allow him to make up that 7 million vote deficit. While his base will stick with him, he won't be able to appeal to most moderates and Independents.
But the other option (nominating someone else) is just as bad for the GOP. Trump has enough die-hard supporters to hurt the party. Whether they try to write-in Trump, or just stay at home on Election Day, the result is the same -- millions of votes lost and another presidential loss for the Republican Party.
Trump has refused to sign a loyalty pledge to support the nominee if it isn't him. And since he's never shown the ability to be a good loser, it is highly unlikely that he would support the nominee. And that means millions of his supporters won't either.
To Trump or not to Trump? There is no good (or winning) answer to that question.