"This is the new epicenter," said Dr. Marcos Espinal, director of communicable diseases at the Pan American Health Organization.
Months after emerging from a relatively obscure Chinese province, the eye of this viral storm settled firmly in Latin America.
There are approximately 920,000 confirmed cases of coronavirus and nearly 50,000 deaths in 33 countries in the region, but these numbers are increasing rapidly.
As new deaths and cases fall in the United States, Europe and Asia, Latin America is now the only region in the world where the epidemic unequivocally reaches new heights.
"In many ways, this is not a surprise," said Dr. Ana Diez Roux, dean of the School of Public Health at Drexel University. "It was predictable that it would happen."
In conversations with eight different experts, including a former head of state, epidemiologists and top researchers from the region, it is widely accepted that a flawed government response associated with the unique economic and public health situation in the country 'Latin America has led to the severity of the current epidemic.
Experts were also almost unanimous that the situation was likely to get worse.
How we got here
Latin America recorded its first confirmed case in February, when a 61-year-old man tested positive in São Paulo, Brazil, after returning from a trip to Italy.
For weeks afterward, things seemed to be under control. Case totals in the region increased only slightly more. The first death will not be registered until March 7 in Argentina.
But some already suspected that there would be a tragedy to come.
In a March 19 article for the New York Times, Miguel Lago, a Brazilian public health expert, wrote that Latin America was not prepared for the virus and that the region could possibly become worse than Europe. .
"[Latin America] could become the biggest victim of Covid-19 if health authorities and governments ... don't take immediate action. "
His words would prove to be prescient. In mid-May, Latin America reported higher total daily increases in cases than in the United States and Europe.
Brazil would overtake Italy, the United Kingdom and Russia to register the second highest number of cases in the world.
A global shortage of testing and the reluctance of some countries to carry out mass testing has also raised doubts about the accuracy of case and death counts in the region.
"[The official numbers] provide a false sense of security. The number of cases does not show the extent of the problem, "said Dr. Espinal.
Questionable government response
CNN reported on the viral epidemic in China the first week of January. On March 1, health experts around the world warned of an unstoppable pandemic.
Every Latin American government knew, or should have known, what was going to happen, and in March many regional leaders took action that suggested they understood the threat.
Others are not.
"There were some bad examples of governments that simply didn't care, and the presidents chose not to act," said Luis Guillermo Solís, the former president of Costa Rica.
He specifically appointed the heads of the two largest Latin American countries, Brazil and Mexico, which represent about half of the region's total population.
In March, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro and Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador downplayed the threat of the virus. Bolsonaro called it a "little flu". López Obrador brandished two amulets at a press conference and, smiling, said they would protect him.
López Obrador finally urged people to stay at home and authorized the shuttering of large swathes of the economy. But critics say fuzzy messages have contributed to a clearly skeptical Mexican public about the deadly threat from the virus.
Mexico experienced its largest daily increase in deaths and new cases this week. It has recorded around 85,000 confirmed cases and around 9,400 deaths, although health officials say the real numbers are significantly higher due to tests carried out by Mexico at a much lower rate than in many other countries. .
Bolsonaro, however, only doubled compared to his original claims. As the epidemic in Brazil has exponentially become one of the worst in the world, with more than 465,000 cases and nearly 28,000 deaths, he regularly attended large rallies with thousands of supporters.
"There was tension between local and state authorities who wanted to go much further in terms of social distancing and they were in tension with national leaders," said Katherine Bliss, research fellow at CSIS Global Health Policy Center .
Bolsonaro argued that the real threat comes from quarantine measures imposed by the state governors of the country - measures that have undoubtedly hurt the economy of Brazil.
But there is an almost universal agreement that the epidemic in Brazil would be much worse if these governors had not taken action.
Quarantines do not solve everything
The lack of quick responses in Brazil and Mexico have been outliers in the region.
Former Costa Rican President Solís said the majority of leaders have done the right thing.
"You had to isolate yourself, you have to prevent people from entering your country," said Solis. "Overall, I think this phase was managed properly."
Peru, Chile and Ecuador all closed their borders to foreigners in mid-March, while quickly imposing strict quarantine measures that amounted to national blockades.
But two months later, Peru has the second most confirmed case in Latin America, Chile the third and the Ecuadorian city of Guayaquil experienced one of the most well-known localized epidemics in the world.
The situation in these countries has deteriorated despite widespread and proactive efforts by governments to contain the virus.
To explain why this is happening, experts point to at least two likely causes: preventive measures have been made ineffective by massive economic inequality, and a lack of investment in public health systems is compromising the ability to care for the sick.
Latin America has always been plagued by some of the worst economic inequality in the world, which has resulted in the massive participation of workers in the so-called informal economy.
These are workers who do not earn an official paycheck and who have to go to the streets every day to do their shopping, whether it be selling tacos, shining shoes or cleaning houses. They are unlikely to have many, if any, savings to rely on, and they are certainly not getting sick leave.
"These people manage from week to week under normal circumstances," said Carin Zissis of the Society of the Americas and the Council of the Americas. "If everything is closed, how do they feed themselves and how do they feed their families?"
According to the World Economic Forum, about 55% of all workers in Latin America toil in the informal economy, totaling almost 140 million people.
Living day by day and with families to feed, many of these people go out every day through Latin America, quarantines are damn damn.
"It is very difficult for governments to maintain strict measures such as closures, as these people have to go out daily to earn money to survive," said Carlos Malamud, senior analyst at the Elcano Royal Institute in Spain .
Government grants may provide more incentives to stay at home, but cash-strapped countries simply cannot afford the level of support that would keep people out of work.
Massive income disparities in large Latin American cities have also made it impossible to obtain suitable housing. Instead, millions of people crowd into poor, densely populated favelas or barrios, with large families often sharing one or two rooms.
"The security measures that need to be taken to stop the spread of the pandemic are simply missing," said Cynthia Arnson, Latin America program director at the Wilson Center.
In other words, a lot of people couldn't distance themselves socially if they tried.
Latin American countries have also neglected for years to invest more in public health care, which in many cases is enshrined in constitutions as a guaranteed right for citizens.
The Pan American Health Organization says that the vast majority of countries in the region invest less than its recommended 6% of GDP in public health.
This leaves public hospitals chronically underfunded but systematically overwhelmed by those who seek care.
The situation is already quite difficult during periods without a pandemic. But Covid-19 has pushed some public hospitals in Ecuador, Peru, and Brazil to the brink of collapse and beyond.
Without proactive investment in public health systems, "You can deal with a pandemic for a little while, but you cannot maintain a sustained process," said Solís.
Where is it going from here?
In Latin America, as everywhere else in the world, there are two overarching and sometimes contradictory objectives as this epidemic progresses - how to slow the spread of the virus while boosting the economy.
These two objectives could prove difficult to achieve.
The Pan American Health Organization estimates that the epidemic will continue at current levels for at least the next few weeks.
An influential model from the University of Washington predicts that Brazil could surpass 125,000 deaths by August.
"I think we are going to see many more deaths than we have seen [so far]"said Diez Roux, dean and epidemiologist at the University of Drexel.
Tense public health systems are also unlikely to be able to track and isolate new cases on a large scale once quarantine measures are relaxed, a strategy that most health experts recognize as essential for manage the epidemic over time.
"[That] is pretty much the only way we have to control it right now and for that you need very powerful systems, "said Diez Roux.
The economic recovery could prove to be even more difficult.
The UN predicts a regional GDP contraction of 5.3%, the largest such contraction since the records started in 1900. An additional 30 million people are expected to be added poor people.
With depressed global economic activity, Latin American economies that are highly dependent on world trade will not be able to turn to foreign countries for relief.
"I am extremely concerned," said Cynthia Arnson of the Wilson Center. "The economic pain is simply staggering."
The poor are already more vulnerable to the virus due to poor living conditions and the need to go to work. But the virus is likely to worsen the number of poor, worsen living conditions and further increase the need to go out and earn money.
It is a brutal cycle but it represents the foreseeable future of Latin America - the region where the short and long term effects of the virus could be most felt.
"Latin America is like a perfect storm," said Lago, the Brazilian public health expert who warned of the possibility last March.
Even then, it was probably too late to do much.