The Labor Department has released its statistics for the month of June, and it shows the downward trend of the unemployment rate has stopped. The rate actually climbed by 0.2% last month to 4.0%. About 213,000 jobs were created, but that was not nearly enough to cover for the growth in the civilian work force of 601,000.
These numbers don't include the effects of Trump's trade war, which is just now starting to crank up. Trump doesn't think that will affect the unemployment rate (which he seems to think will magically continue to fall). But the truth is that his trade war will probably cost a lot more jobs than it creates, and it will likely stunt the creation of jobs as businesses try to cope with their higher new production costs.
Here are the relevant statistics for June of 2018:
SIZE OF THE CIVILIAN WORK FORCE:
162,140,000
OFFICIAL NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED WORKERS:
6,564,000
OFFICIAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE:
4.0%
DEMOGRAPHIC PICTURE OF OFFICIAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATES:
Adult men...............3.7%
Adult women...............3.7%
Teenagers (16-19)...............12.6%
Whites...............3.5%
Blacks...............6.5%
Hispanics...............4.6%
Asians...............3.2%
Less than HS diploma...............5.5%
HS diploma...............4.2%
Some college...............3.3%
Bachelor's degree or more...............2.3%
NUMBER OF MARGINALLY-ATTACHED UNEMPLOYED WORKERS (no longer counted)
1,437,000
MORE REALISTIC NUMBER OF UNEMPLOYED WORKERS (official + marginally-attached)
8,001,000
MORE REALISTIC UNEMPLOYMENT RATE:
4.93%