From The Hill:
“Anybody that says, ‘It just doesn’t happen in Texas’ — it doesn’t happen until it does,” pollster Brett Loyd said of the possibility Allred scores an upset in the Senate race.
The contest between Cruz and Allred, whose entry last year shifted Cook Political Report’s rating of the Senate seat from “solid” Republican to “likely” Republican, is one of a small handful that have emerged as unexpectedly competitive in the high-stakes fight for the Senate this fall.
Cruz fended off a strong Democratic challenge six years ago, when O’Rourke came within 3 percentage points of flipping the seat. O’Rourke’s bid benefited from the broader “blue wave” in the midterm election that year, and some in the state are skeptical that Allred can snag the energy he needs to finish the job this cycle. In 2022, Gov. Greg Abbott (R) defeated O’Rourke’s bid for the governor’s mansion by double digits.
But several recent polls show Cruz struggling to cross the 50-percent mark, making the Texas Senate race a potential bright spot for Democrats as they battle to hold their slim majority in the upper chamber.
“If you’re Ted Cruz or a Ted Cruz fan, if in the closing months of an election, you’re not at 50 percent and you’re not closing that margin up towards 50 percent, that’s going to be problematic,” Loyd said.