François Hollande (Photo credit: photogreuhphies)
Francois Hollande has now been the President for France for one year. Looking at the French political scene, it is impossible for even his strongest supporters to deny that his popularity has slipped with more rapidity and severity of any newly elected head of state in recent times. With France falling into recession, the government being rocked by numerous scandals, and a number of key policy pledges running into legal difficulties, the Socialist administration has lost so much support that it is currently polling in third place, behind the far-right National Front.
France has only ever voted in two left-of-centre Presidents. The first was Francois Mitterrand, who won power in 1981 after promising a radical programme of left-wing social and economic reform. Within two years, a major reversal took place in the latter strand, as Mitterrand surrendered to market forces and implemented a policy privatisation and deregulation. The second, Francois Hollande, spoke of two years of hardship until investment in economic recovery paid dividends that would fund measures such as tens of thousands of new school teachers. Mitterrand in reverse, you might say. Unfortunately, a recession will derail these plans.
French politics is notoriously prone to division and extremes. Communist and nationalist parties both enjoy levels of support well into the double figures, and squeeze major parties which tack to the centre. Indeed, if the administration of ‘Mr Normal’ is to be described as anything, ‘centrist’ would be a good word to start with. Despite vocal criticism of Europe’s ‘austerity consensus’, Hollande’s government has shied away from a sizeable programme of fiscal stimulus. Although it is conventional wisdom that an incoming government needs time for its economic policy to take effect, it is the Socialists who are being blamed.
The Left say that the government hasn’t been radical enough; the Right attack it for straying off the path of austerity. Nobody’s happy. This is because there is truth to Nye Bevan’s saying: “We know what happens to people who stay in the middle of the road. They get run down.” If the government wishes to secure re-election in 2017, it must become the outlet for fresh ideas, and not continue its support for a stale neo-liberal consensus which it disowns with words but not actions.
It isn’t a failure to be moderate enough that is damaging the Socialists- if that were so, the opposition UMP would be enjoying a surge in popularity. The fact that the far-right is benefitting points to growing dissatisfaction with the two-party, one model system, in a way that bears a striking resemblance to the British political scene (where the emergence of the UK Independence Party is provoking much thought). The danger lies in the fluidity of French politics, where multi-party coalitions are the norm.
That said, the surface unpopularity of the government masks a number of popular and constructive policies. Same-sex marriage wouldn’t have been legalised if Nicholas Sarkozy remained is office. The 75% tax-band on incomes over €1,000,000, though delayed on a legal technicality, will soon raise vital funds to plug a shrinking budget deficit. And above all, French foreign policy would continue to be heavy-handed and personality based. Given time, voters are likely to recognise the benefits of this.
It’s unfortunate for Mr Hollande that he came to power in such difficult global conditions. Very unfortunate. But it would be unwise to write off his future political career just yet: after all, Margaret Thatcher’s Conservative government was widely regarded as a disaster after its first year of power, but went on to be re-elected with two landslide majorities. The future is still up for grabs.