The Polls Were NOT Wrong This Time

Posted on the 11 November 2024 by Jobsanger

In recent presidential elections, the polls have been vilified - many of them justifiably. And some are even blaming the polls again this time - saying they were wrong. But they weren't. This time they were right!

This was a very close election in the popular vote. As of the latest count, Trump had 50.4% and Harris had 47.9%. That's about a 2.5 point gap. And that's exactly what the polls were telling us - that it would be very close.

While many polls had Harris with a slight lead, it was always within the poll's admitted margin of error - which means either of the candidates could have a small lead. That's how it turned out - a victory within the margin of error.

Polling is not an exact science. At best, they just give us an educated guess (within a small error) of what the public's thinking at a particular time. They told us this would be a close election and either candidate could win by a small margin. That is what happened, especially in the critical swing states.

Some look to the electoral college margin (312 to 226), and say it wasn't a close election. But polling can't predict what the electoral college will turn out to be - only what the popular vote might be.

For the most part, I think the polls did a credible job this time.