THE presidential election on May 10th will set the tone for Poland’s general election this autumn. It has been dominated by the long-standing rivalry between the centre-right Civic Platform (PO), which has held power since 2007, and the conservative Law and Justice party (PiS) that it defeated. The PO-backed incumbent, Bronislaw Komorowski, is the most likely winner. But his ratings have dipped to 40%, making it more probable that he will need to win a second-round run-off in two weeks’ time against the PiS candidate, Andrzej Duda, who is below 30%.
This week Mr Komorowski was due to take center stage at events to mark the 70th anniversary of the end of the war in Europe. Yet he has been treading cautiously. He was the only candidate to shun a televised presidential debate. Mr Duda was left to make himself heard among a gaggle of other candidates (there are 11 in all). Mr Komorowski’s team have released a clip reminding voters of Mr Duda’s conservative views on in-vitro fertilisation, to which the Catholic church is hostile, but which a majority of Poles support.
Yet again the left has failed to make much of a showing. The Democratic Left Alliance (SLD), descended from the former communists, took a gamble by nominating Magdalena Ogorek, a 36-year-old historian and television personality. But she has failed to appeal to voters, winning ratings as low as…