Russia’s Exploding, Unblockable Drones Are Unlikely to Be the Game-changer in This Strange Arms Race in Ukraine

By Elliefrost @adikt_blog
  • The Russian fiber optic drones are the latest solution to prevent signal jamming and electronic warfare.

  • But the wired drones come with their own complications and may only be useful in certain situations.

  • The drone arms race is forcing both Russia and Ukraine to rapidly develop and combat new capabilities.

Russia uses newer drones that are controlled via fiber optic cables, making them immune to the forms of signal jamming and electronic warfare that plague both sides when using unmanned systems.

The latest advancement in unmanned warfare isn't necessarily an all-out game changer, however. The wired drones are likely just another evolution in the ever-expanding drone arms race between Russia and Ukraine. Rarely in war is there anything that is a true panacea.

Since Ukraine's surprise invasion of Russia's Kursk region, there have been repeated reports of Russian forces using new, wired unmanned aerial vehicles to attack Ukrainian military vehicles such as tanks and personnel carriers.

Footage shared on social media by open-source intelligence accounts has also documented the drones being used in combat. The telltale sign in the video is the higher quality of the photo compared to the wireless systems.

How Russian FPV drones "Knyas Vandal of Novgorod" (KVN) deal with the intruders in the Kursk area. This is only from yesterday and the day before. photo.twitter.com/BYpZsrdVUF

- nofm_geopolitics (@nofmgeopolitics) August 13, 2024

Russian military Telegram channels have shared images of possible applications. According to them, the drones were "controlled via a fiber optic cable, which ensures high accuracy and resistance to electronic warfare."

Drones immune to interference

The first documented use of fiber-optic drones occurred in March, when Ukraine seized a Russian prototype. However, these weapons appear to be more widespread today.

The fiber optic cable on the drone ensures a stable connection between the drone and the pilot. This makes the cable resistant to radio interference and electronic warfare. In addition, a high-quality video transmission is guaranteed, so that the pilot can see where he is flying.

While the drone is flying, the cable is unwound from a reel on the drone.

Several companies, including German and Chinese ones, are working on fiber-optic drones. For example, German company HIGHCAT plans to test its fiber-optic drone in Ukraine sometime this month, according to United24, a Ukrainian government-run operation that is crowdfunding to develop and build drones for war.

Stacie Pettyjohn, director of the defense program at the Center for a New American Security, explains that it's currently difficult to assess the effectiveness of these systems based on the limited information available online. Still, it makes sense to deploy them, given the impact of drone disruption.

However, it is just one of the ways Russia and Ukraine are adapting to that problem.

More than one way to solve a problem

"There are two ways that both countries are trying to respond to this," Pettyjohn said. The low-tech, low-cost solution is something like this new wired drone, "which is attached to a guidance system that can't be disrupted."

The design is similar in some ways to weapons such as the widely available US anti-tank TOW missile. This is a wire-guided system that allows the user to maintain communication, change the flight path and ensure that the missile reaches its target.

The high-tech solution to the jamming problem revolves around the use of an autonomous terminal guidance system, which effectively turns the drone into a "fire-and-forget" weapon because it locks on to a target should jamming disable the operator's connection to the drone. It also doesn't require as much skill from a pilot because of that lock-on capability. There is strong evidence that the next phase of drone warfare is here.

Both options have pros and cons, Pettyjohn said. But the wired drone has some potential drawbacks.

First, the operator needs to consider how they are using the wired drone. Drones that are used with this type of connection are typically already tactical drones with short ranges, but the cable adds an additional limitation to the range. Tethered drones are also likely to be compact and likely to carry smaller payloads.

Pettyjohn said, "When you add to that the added weight and complexity of a line attached to the drone, the potential range of the drone is limited."

The attached wire can also limit where the operator can fly the drone. For example, it could get caught on tree branches or tangled up with other wired drones. And possible countermeasures, such as cutting the wires, could also limit the system's usefulness in combat.

HIGHCAT stated that the cable drops to the ground once it is unwound from the reel, "eliminating the possibility of entanglement." It is unclear whether the Russian systems adequately address this problem.

But all the concerns about the downsides of wired drones don't mean they won't be useful. There are videos of these weapons hitting targets and causing damage.

A drone arms race

Soldiers fighting on the front lines in Ukraine, where combat within the electromagnetic spectrum plays a major role, may see the value in maintaining a wired connection to their drone to avoid jamming and to hit a target at close range.

Drone losses to electronic warfare have been huge, so the benefits of the cable may outweigh the drawbacks. The jamming threat is probably much more of a concern than hanging them in a tree.

Jan Hartmann, co-founder of HIGHCAT, recently said that the fiber optic drones the company has developed "were designed with the front lines in mind, specifically the current developments in Ukraine. We wanted to create a COTS (Commercial Off The Shelf) system that could not be disrupted by enemy fighters."

However, according to Pettyjohn, it's more likely that this kind of technology will become just one of many options in Russia and Ukraine's toolbox as the drone development race continues.

First-person-view, or FPV, drones began to emerge as a prominent threat on the battlefield in Ukraine. They began as surveillance tools or means of directing fire, but quickly evolved into something more, specifically precision strike capabilities.

From there, the technology expanded. Drones were used to drop mines or grenades, hit vehicles or troop positions with explosives on board, or even intercept other drones, such as the larger, more sophisticated systems.

Electronic warfare has taken its toll on the force, but now new things are emerging, like wired drones. At some point, as countermeasures are developed, another option will likely take its place. Maybe it's AI-driven autonomous drones. Maybe it's something else. Ukrainian officials have said that unmanned ground combat systems could be the next "game changer."

Both sides continue to play a game of cat and mouse, adapting and countering each other's latest developments. And as one Ukrainian official previously told Business Insider, "This is the most technologically advanced war in human history."

"Technologies make the difference on the battlefield," the official explained. "We're basically reinventing their application every day."

Read the original article on Business Insider