The background
David Cameron’s leadership is facing serious scrutiny after The Mail on Sunday alleged two Tory plots to mount a challenge to the PM.
The first plot centres on London Mayor Boris Johnson who, with the support of Conservative MP Zac Goldsmith, is apparently “being lined up to return to a safe Commons seat in 2015 and mount an immediate leadership challenge if David Cameron fails to secure an overall majority,” wrote James Chapman in The Mail. Johnson’s spokesman dismissed the story as “fanciful”.
The other plot involves a little-known backbench MP, Colonel Bob Stewart, who claimed “two colleagues approached him before the summer break to consider a ‘stalking horse’ challenge for the party leadership that might open the door for Mr Johnson to take over. But Colonel Stewart told them to ‘get lost’.”
With denials flying from all sides, how safe is Cameron’s position?
Don’t rule out Boris Johnson as PM
The details of the plot reported in the press recently may be incorrect, wrote Patrick O’Flynn in The Daily Express, but Johnson may well replace Cameron as prime minister before the next election. “If Mr Cameron does not recover his standing in the opinion polls then there is every likelihood of Conservative MPs casting round for an alternative before the 2015 general election,” O’Flynn said. “And with no viable alternative visible within their ranks Mr Johnson stands out as the one person who could just pull off an unlikely Tory victory.”
Johnson has the feel-good factor
The problem for Cameron is that Johnson is riding a wave of adulation after a successful Olympic Games, argued Rachel Sylvester in The Times (£): “The London Mayor has become his party’s bright hope for the future, the Tory optimist who has snatched ‘general wellbeing’ from a Prime Minister now wedded to austerity gloom.” Cameron needs to worry less about potential rivals and more about his own “trashed” brand: “By accident or design, he has destroyed the compassionate Conservative reputation he worked so hard to create.”
There’s no smoke without fire
“History teaches us that when major national newspapers start running stories about leadership challenges, no matter how hazy the detail, something is in the air,” wrote Nick Wood in The Daily Mail. But the good news for Cameron is that some economists are pointing towards economic recovery in the UK: “A genuine economic pick-up would soon silence the plotters.”
Cameron under pressure but safe – for now
“Clearly, it’s getting tricky at the top for Cameron. Briefing about plots is one way that some people hope to hasten the day of his departure,” wrote Tim Bale on The Guardian’s Comment is Free. But neither of the supposed plots is particularly convincing. Just consider the idea that BoJo would take over as PM: “Given the misgivings about Boris Johnson among so many of those who would have to serve under him, there is no guarantee (assuming his re-entry into the Commons could be easily engineered) that a vote of no confidence in Cameron wouldn’t see others throw their hats into the ring.”