It's been over 20 years since a Democrat won a statewide race in Texas -- or even came close to winning. But if this poll is correct, that has changed.
The charts above are from the newest Quinnipiac University Poll -- done between April 12th and 17th of a random sample of 1,029 Texas voters. with a margin of error of 3.6 points.
A few months ago, the thought that Ted Cruz might lose his senate seat in the November election was just a dream of Democrats. Even though I liked the Democratic candidate, Beto O'Rourke, I stated on this blog that if he won it would be a minor miracle. It looks like I may have underestimated his chances.
The poll shows O'Rourke trails Cruz by only 3 points (47% to 44%) -- a gap that is within the poll's margin of error. It's been a long time since a statewide Democrat was polling that well, and should energize the state's Democrats to do even more.
It is the second chart that's should make Democrats very happy. While most Texans know Cruz, they are split on whether they view him favorably or unfavorably (46% to 44%). While O'Rourke is viewed favorably by only 30%, there are 53% of Texas voters who say they just don't know him well enough to know if they view him favorably or unfavorably. That means he has a lot of room for improvement, and if he is able to adequately introduce himself to Texas voters, might actually win in November.
The good news is that he has a little over 6 months to accomplish that. I think he's a good candidate and campaigner, and most Texans will like him if they get to know him better. O'Rourke has about %8 million on hand (about the same as Cruz has), but he will probably need more to convince Texas voters that he would be good for them. I do like the fact that, unlike some Democrats in the past, he's not restricting his campaign to Democratic areas (like urban centers and South Texas). He's following a 254 county campaign strategy.
If you would like to help O'Rourke fund his introduction to Texas voters, you can go here. (NOTE: He is not accepting any PAC or super-PAC money -- only donations from individuals.)