The conventional wisdom has been recently that Abbott would easily defeat Davis in the general election. After all, Texas is a red state and Abbott has over $22 million in his campaign chest (while Davis has just over $1 million, so far). But a new poll shows that "conventional wisdom" may not be so wise after all.
It is the recently released annual Texas Lyceum Poll. They polled 1,000 Texans between September 6th and 20th (and the poll has a margin of error of 3.1 points). The survey showed that Abbott does have an 8-point lead over Davis at this time (29% to 21%), but he is still far from the percentage he would need to be elected. At least 50% of Texans have not made up their minds between those two candidates -- and that means Democrats may well have their best opportunity in a couple of decades to put one of their own in the governor's mansion.
It will not be easy. Abbott is a formidable candidate with a lot of money, and Texas still leans toward the GOP. But if the Democrats can properly fund Senator Davis and then work their tails off for her, she has a legitimate chance to win.
And that poll shows that may not be the only opportunity for Democrats. A huge section of the electorate still is undecided about which party to support in races for the U.S. Congress, and in races for the Texas House. The gerrymandering completed by Republicans in 2010 will probably save many of those races for them, but in close districts the Democrats could well pick up some seats.
Texas is not a blue state -- at least not yet. But it may not be as red as many think either. Texas could be well on its way to becoming a purple state -- a state where candidates from both parties have a good chance to win. It will be interesting to see what the polls show when we get closer to the 2014 election, but these early numbers should encourage Democrats.