The world is saved! Iran has been talked out of its diabolical plot to develop nuclear weaponry by stealth!
Well, sort of. The efforts of negotiators in Geneva seem to have yielded a handsome dividend, with Iran agreeing to limit its uranium enrichment technology to render the production of weapons grade radioactivity impossible. In exchange, many of the sanctions which have isolated the country- except those on oil and the financial sectors- will be lifted. Both sides claim success in the negotiations, but it is really a classic compromise. Iran can retain its nuclear energy projects (though goodness knows why!) whilst the West can say that they’ve prevented Iran becoming a nuclear power.
Of course, there is a high element of trust needed to make the agreement work. International sanctions can be reestablished within days, so Iran will be very wary of the West. On the other hand, Iran has a long history of misleading UN weapons inspectors, and there is little to stop the government secretly breaking its promise to the world. Neither side is pointing their gun at the other any more, but they haven’t put the guns away either. It’s a dodgy situation, but it’s a thousand times better than the alternatives.
The “War on Terror” brigade was agitating for another war in the Middle East. When Tony Blair says that somewhere should be invaded before they acquire weapons of mass destruction, it should set alarm bells ringing in the non-warmonger, international law observers amongst us. Similarly, that the government of Israel has attacked the deal strikes me as a good sign, in a way. Given the state of relations between the hardline Israeli government and its similarly hardline Arab neighbours, I favour a more delicate approach. I’m still at a loss as to the justification for Israel’s nuclear arsenal, but then I speak as a British citizen, albeit a unilateralist one.
There is some concern that the Iranian deal was reached in parallel with the official negotiations in Geneva, between the President of Iran and the US’ Deputy Secretary of State (i.e. deputy foreign minister). It’s unclear to what extent that’s true, but I think that it’s an irrelevance. That’s exactly the kind of ‘malarkey’ that happens at these grand conferences and summits. It’s just a fact of diplomatic life. However irritating it may be, can we not be glad that there is one less risk to the safety and prosperity of the Middle East today?