Last week Owen Matthews in The Spectator(*) - where else? - provided us all with a very different slant on Vlad's apparent triumph in the Crimea. In brief, according to Mr. Matthews but in my sublime words, Vlad just swallowed a shit sandwich of massive proportions! Crimea is a dump! Even the Russian regional development minister said just before Vlad's 'invasion', "Today, our Crimea, looks no better than Palestine." It is the end result of several decades of gangster rule by bribery and corruption. It has a narrow, single neck of land joining it to Ukraine but the only link to, er, 'Mother' Russia is by an old and very slow ferry! Of course, Vlad has promised to replace it - at vast expense - with something faster and more modern but that is only the first dip he will have to make into Russian coffers. The hope is to turn Crimea into the Riviera for Russians but that is going to cost ga-zillions - so stand by for yet another huge jump in London mansion prices as the oligarchs pocket their share of the booty.
Meanwhile, of course, Vlad has very kindly removed the main cancer from Ukrainian society. Now, with an overwhelming majority of Ukrainians in control of the country, there is absolutely no chance of a pro-Russian government in Kiev. Western benefactors are lining up to offer lines of credit and the only squeeze Vlad had was on the gas/oil pipeline which provides Ukraine's energy needs. However, now Ukraine has a similar grip on the Crimean windpipe, so one good squeeze will earn another!
Longer term the future does not look too bright for Vlad. As Europe suddenly shakes off all that Greenie nonsense and realises that it needs to seek about for new sources of non-Russian energy, so Vlad's income will begin to decline. More important, so will the incomes of various oligarchs who will not tolerate the situation for too long. Russia is a giant oil and gas balloon and the chances it will deflate very rapidly over the next five to ten years.
How long do you think before Vlad looks for a suitable property in London? And will he buy Arsenal Football Club to compete with his old mate Roman Abromovich at Chelsea?
(*) I have paraphrased Mr. Matthews' article as accurately as possible. Alas, despite being a subscriber to the magazine I couldn't access the original and provide you with quotes.