Every year right before the Oscar nominations come out we all think we know exactly what to expect. Simply look at the Golden Globes as well as the Directors, Producers, Screen Actors, and Writers Guilds nominations. Identify the one person in each category most likely to be snubbed by the Academy. Guess who will be nominated in their place. And, bada bing, bada boom, you're predictions are done. That's literally the only thought you have to put into it.
Still, the Academy always something no one expects, like snub Amy Adams for Arrival, pick Michael Shannon over Aaron Taylor-Johnson for Nocturnal Animals, snub Spielberg ( Bridge of Spies) AND Ridley Scott Scott ( The Martian) in favor of Lenny Abrahamson (The Room), or nominate Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close for Best Picture...for some reason.
This year, more than any other in recent memory seems especially ripe for such surprises because the awards are more politicised than ever before and consensus opinion has been harder to reach. Moreover, with the historic infusion of younger, more diverse members into the Academy in recent years we can't be certain the old rules still apply. For example, there's no guarantee that a classic piece of Oscar bait like The Post is just going to be rubber-stamped into every category, especially since that movie has been going home empty-handed at every awards show.
Might The Post now fail to even make it into the Best Picture race? Well...
Here are my predictions for the 90th Academy Award nominations:
Note: I'm refraining from predicting categories I don't know enough about, including Best Foreign Language Film, Sound Mixing/Editing, Makeup/Hair Design, Special Effects, Song, and the various Short Film awards. BEST PICTUREExplanation: In 2011, the Academy changed its Best Picture rules to no longer mandate there be 10 nominees but instead only that there be a maximum of 10 nominees should that many movies receive enough votes. Ever since then, there have been 9 Best Picture nominees per year every year except for 2015 when there were just 8. I don't expect this year to be any different.
My first 8 choices were all nominated by the PGA as well, and among them only The Post seems to be anything other than a lock. The PGA also nominated The Big Sick, I, Tonya, Molly's Game, and Wonder Woman, yet the Academy tends to sneak in at least one movie the PGA (and everyone else) overlooked. This year, I think it might be Phantom Thread due its ability to appeal to just about every branch of the Academy over the PGA's other nominees. Plus, personal bias and all, Phantom Thread is just so damn good.
The Post I'm keeping in there because even though all signs are pointing toward it being snubbed I just can't quite believe the Academy will resist the temptation of Spielberg, Hanks, and Streep in a movie which uses history to shout at Trump and champion the women's movement. That's why it might get in over a similar piece of Oscar bait like The Darkest Hour. The other PGA nominees which I'm ignoring seem more like screenplay and acting contenders in the Academy's standard playbook, not Best Picture.
BEST DIRECTORExplanation: Oddly, the Academy and the DGA always seem to agree on who the 4 best directors are in any given year but rarely all 5. The last time they agreed on all 5 was back in 2009, and you know who has been nominated by the DGA four times but never by the Academy? Christopher Nolan. So, it might not be Gerwig or Peele who are the most likely to be snubbed by the Academy even though the DGA liked them; it could actually be Nolan. That's why I'm predicting Baker, who was not nominated by the DGA this year, will get the Oscar nod over DGA nominee Nolan. Admittedly, this goes completely against the grain since everyone has long since assumed Nolan is a shoe-in for a nomination and Del Toro's closest competition to win, but have we forgotten just how much the Academy seems to hate Nolan?
BEST ACTORExplanation: The obvious name to watch here will be James Franco. His sexual misconduct controversy didn't erupt until halfway through the Oscar voting had opened, and even so there's still the continued debate over whether whatever he did or did not do away from the screen in the past should matter in deciding if he delivered one of the 5 best performances of the year. Such controversy didn't strike down Casey Affleck last year. Will this year be different for Franco? I'd say yes if the details of his misconduct had come out before the Oscar voting had already opened. As is, I think there are probably a lot of voters who wish they had their vote back to strike Franco down, justly or not, but it's too late. If he is snubbed, though, Tom Hanks is his most likely replacement.
BEST ACTRESSExplanation: Meryl was surprisingly passed over by SAG in favor of Judi Dench in Victoria & Abdul, but you bet against Meryl and the Oscars at your own peril. She's not going to win, of course, but I'll be surprised if she's not at least nominated. For any of the other women in the category to be snubbed, though, would be downright stunning.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTORExplanation: Just the same SAG nominees with Armie Hammer in place of Steve Carell since Battle of the Sexes seems to have zero awards momentum.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESSExplanation: The same SAG nominees with Spencer in place of Hong Chau since her Downsizing accent is too divisive and Manville over Holly Hunter for The Big Sick due to recency bias, i.e., Big Sick came out over the summer, Phantom Thread just a couple of weeks ago. Plus, again, my own bias as well - Manville is just so damn good.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAYExplanation: Just the same WGA nominees with Three Billboards in place of I, Tonya.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAYExplanation: Just the same WGA nominees with Wonder Woman in place of Logan. This shouldn't happen; Logan is the better movie and script. However, it it does happen it'll be because Wonder Woman feels more powerful in this cultural moment.
BEST ANIMATED FILMExplanation: Really, just write-in Coco and then leave the other 4 spaces empty because this race is over before it even began. Frankly, in a more just year Coco would also be in the running for Best Picture right now.
BEST DOCUMENTARYExplanation: For certain categories, the Academy whittles down the potential nominees so that by the end there's a shortlist to choose from. Thanks to that, we've known which 15 docs were in the running for the category since early December, and from there it's kind of a crapshoot.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHYExplanation: Similar to the DGA, the American Society of Cinematographers and Academy tend to agree about the 4 best, not the 5. So, my predictions are right in line with the ASC's nominees except I think Janusz Kaminsky ( The Post) will get in over Bruno Delbonnel ( Darkest Hour) simply because Kaminsky is almost always nominated for his Spielberg movies, The Bridge of Spies being one notable exception.
BEST COSTUME DESIGNExplanation: Just think of anything period piece or fantasy-based. For whatever it matters, no 2017 film's costumes mattered more to the narrative than Phantom Thread.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGNExplanation: This is Shape of Water' s category to lose.
BEST FILM EDITINGExplanation: The only category Baby Driver has any shot in.
BEST ORIGINAL SCOREExplanation: Again, this is Shape of Water 's category to lose.
To sum up, I'm mostly falling in line with how the Guilds have gone except I'm predicting Phantom Thread for Best Picture and Best Supporting Actress, in addition, to Best Actor, Wonder Woman and Three Billboards for Best Screenplay, Armie Hammer for Best Supporting Actor, Sean Baker for Best Director, and The Post for Best Cinematography.
Of course, we have a pretty good sense of who's actually going to win in the major categories - Allison Janney, Frances McDormand, Sam Rockwell, Gary Oldman, Guillermo Del Toro, and Coco's producers better have their acceptance speeches ready - and Best Picture seems to have come down to either SAG/Golden Globe winner Three Billboards or PGA/Critics Choice winner Shape of Water. So, really, predicting the wild card nominees is more a case of predicting the lucky eventual losers.
But, hey, if the Academy can give Best Picture to La La Land and then take it back and give it to Moonlight a second later anything's possible.
How well do your predictions line up with mine? And who do you wish would be nominated even though you know they won't? Let me know in the comments.