It's pretty obvious that the ill-fated Russia re-set button produced before a bemused Sergey Lavrov by an excited Hillary Clinton back in 2009 is now sitting prominently in the Russian Foreign Ministry's famed Museum of Diplomatic Curiosities, an exhibit put there for young diplomats to show them how not to behave:
All this trails back to the original 2009 unwise Obama/Clinton gimmick of producing a shiny new ‘re-set’ button to symbolise a post-Bush new start in US/Russia relations. Not only did they get the word wrong in Russian, a bewildering blunder. The very psychological sense of the gesture was all wrong: “Hullo! Here we are! Your new best friend! Whether you want a new best friend or not!”
Russia just does not think like that. Or respect anyone who does.
Now US/Russia relations have entered a new and obviously awkward phase. President Obama has cancelled a planned bilateral meeting with President Putin in the margins of the coming G20 gathering in Russia, plus he has weighed in using curious language on a subject where Putin has strong domestic support:
“I have no patience for countries that try to treat gays or lesbians or transgender persons in ways that intimidate them or are harmful to them,” Obama said, noting Russia “is not unique” in passing such laws.
As my latest PunditWire piece puts it:
What is going on in this publicly escalating mutual disappointment?
First and foremost, hard-headed US/Russia diplomatic business is trudging along as best it can, despite the Snowden episode. US and Russian foreign and defence minister-equivalents are meeting as planned on Friday. And President Obama will attend the G20 event in Russia. A quiet informal word with President Putin choreographed in the margins?
Yet the public mood between national leaders sets the tone for what happens down the policy chain. If Presidents Obama and Putin are not in the mood for engaging, that limits the willingness of their respective teams to push hard or take any risks.
As a speechwriter I don’t like bringing the language of ‘disappointment’ publicly into such things. It betrays a curious self-absorbed weakness, an inability to make shrewd professional judgements: “I thought that you would be nicer to me than you are!”
However, I like even less the language of ‘impatience’ as now used by President Obama. Such a way of framing the issues sounds superficially tough, but not too tough. It has a world-weary, pragmatic feel to it. No doubt it goes down well enough with Obama’s domestic supporters, and for all I know US opinion more generally.
Yet it is dismissive and openly condescending: “Oh, you silly people are simply impossible to deal with! Please go away and shape up, so that we can continue properly.” Worse, it somehow makes the problem seem less about the substance and more about the flickering dial of the Obama private patience-o-meter.
This language will be received in Russia with amused contempt. President Putin must be privately delighted that he has elicited such a strange reaction from President Obama on the gay rights issue, a subject where Russian opinion is overwhelmingly on Putin’s side. Chto? Dark-skinned Obama attacks Putin on gay rights? Otlichno! Putin’s poll numbers jump!
Read the whole thing.