In 2021 and early 2022, there was a lot of talk about the metaverse as tech companies rushed to build it, brands tried to advertise in it, and companies tried to work together virtually in it. But the conversation was filled with crazy excitement. The metaverse doesn’t even exist yet, for starters. Less than half of the people who use the Internet today say they are likely to ever use the metaverse. Meta, which supports the Metaverse, has lost billions of dollars in its Reality Labs division for the last few quarters. And NFTs aren’t faring much better: In nine months, the number of NFT trades dropped by 97%, and the value proposition behind the hype may never live up to what NFT cheerleaders say it will.
Does this mean everything is over? No, not really. The metaverse will be the internet’s 3D experience layer, just as the World Wide Web is the internet’s 2D experience layer. But it will take ten years for that dream to come true.
So, where do we stand in 2023? Forrester says that a winter season for the metaverse and NFTs will cool the market. This is because the economy is slowing down. In the middle term, this won’t be a bad thing. It will let both tech companies and businesses do the hard work of building the infrastructure and use cases that will move the market forward more slowly. But in 2023, you will have to wear a sweater and a coat until it warms up. we predict that:
•We won’t get to see the Pokémon GO moment of the metaverse. When Niantic released Pokémon GO in 2016, it brought augmented reality to a large number of people, helped start new social groups, and made its creators $6 billion. Even though some metaverse-like experiences, like a few well-attended concerts in places like Fortnite, have been popular, few people have been as excited as they are about Pokémon GO. Forrester’s data also shows that almost all consumers would rather have an in-person experience than a virtual one. Instead of “metaverse-washing” or repackaging old immersive experiences, what’s needed is innovation, especially hybrid, physical-digital experiences. But it won’t happen in 2023.
• Loyalty programs will take the place of “cool” NFTs. When brands put out NFTs for consumers, they used to try to look cool and innovative. Those times are over now. People don’t care about NFT stunts or art. Brands will keep changing. Customer loyalty programs are the next big item for NFTs. Smart brands will follow the lead of companies like Louis Vuitton and Starbucks, which use NFTs to give customers access to special experiences and perks.
• When employees use metaverse collaboration, they will be a bright spot. Forrester thinks that metaverse technology will become more popular over time through what they call the “reverse consumerization of IT” effect. This is when people use the tools at work, get used to them, and then start using them for personal. The first step on this path will be to add metaverse-style experiences as a feature, not as a separate product, to collaboration suites. For example, Microsoft is putting its Mesh components right into Teams, which will let people use avatars to move around in 3D virtual spaces and do digital whiteboarding together.
We believe that at least three more of the big collaboration services, like Google, Slack, Webex, or Zoom, will add 3D metaverse-style features in 2023.
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