Lies, Damn Lies and Coronavirus Statistics

Posted on the 11 October 2020 by Markwadsworth @Mark_Wadsworth

The BBC has to big up lock down and diss the Brazilian President (a right wing-populist, apparently, politics is weird down there):
The number of people to have died from Covid-19 in Brazil has passed 150,000, the country's health ministry says.
Brazil has the second-highest coronavirus death toll in the world, after the US, and the third-highest number of cases after the US and India*. The country also passed five million total infections earlier this week.

President Jair Bolsonaro has been accused of downplaying the risks of the virus throughout the pandemic, ignoring expert advice** on restrictive measures.

Ahem.
Brazil has a population of 211 million. Pro rata, it's death rate was only slightly worse than the UK (705 per million against 629)
In Colombia, the next worst-hit country in the region, 27,495 people have died and there have been 894,300 confirmed cases.
To be fair, Colombia's death rate was indeed lower (542 per million) but not that much better than Brazil's. Also, the countries on or near the equator appear to have fared slightly better (more sunshine).
However the daily number of new cases in Brazil has been slowly falling since it plateaued in the summer, when there were about 1,000 new deaths per day for two months.
Geography lesson - Brazil is in the southern hemisphere. There were chalking up about 1,000 deaths per day from late May to late August (i.e. their winter). Daily deaths have been falling slowly but steadily for the past six weeks. Whether that is because or herd immunity or because sunshine kills the virus, I don't know, but good news is good news whatever the cause.
* The comparison with India is meaningless and misleading in the extreme. They have a population of 1.4 billion and a surprisingly low official death rate of only 78 per million. Their daily deaths crept up steadily (not logarithmically, Neil Ferguson please take note) to 1,200 a day at the peak in mid-September and now appear to be falling again (thankfully).
** Maybe he listened to those experts who said that lock downs were fairly pointless? Or maybe he just accepted that lock down measures would be unenforceable in an inherently unstable country?