To destroy Hamas’s military power in Gaza – with the job now only halfway done – a continuation of the ground offensive into southern Gaza is needed. A serious challenge in carrying out this offensive is that most of the population is now in the south, after being evacuated from northern Gaza, effectively doubling the population of the area. In order to deprive Hamas of its last means of defense against the IDF, Israel must move the population of Gaza away from future combat zones.
Gazans can basically go to three areas:
- Gazans can move through the IDF-controlled corridor to return to IDF-controlled northern Gaza. The problem is that most of the buildings and infrastructure in the area have been destroyed.
- Gazans can be placed in designated protected areas in southern Gaza, where the IDF will not operate unless attacked. The downside is that Hamas would likely exploit it to protect its fighters.
- Gazans can temporarily move to Sinai. At the moment, Egypt strongly opposes the idea.
Theoretically, Gazans could be received as refugees all over the world, but since no body is practically ready for that, the options are limited to Gaza and its surrounding areas.
I have previously presented the A Day after the Gaza War plan , based on the Sinai Option, to resolve the humanitarian crisis of the Gazans immediately, to rebuild the devastated Palestinian territory in the medium term, and to implement a two-state solution in the long term. So my proposal is broader than a purely humanitarian temporary protection zone, and Egypt is therefore against it, at least for the time being. Since Hamas is against the immediate release of the hostages and the laying down of arms in order to achieve an immediate ceasefire, other ways forward must be sought to achieve a quick solution to the humanitarian crisis and even life in the region after the military defeat of Hamas.
The Israeli institute BESA (The Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies) has also presented a fourth option worth considering, i.e. the establishment of temporary accommodation camps for the residents of Gaza in the Negev, Israel. According to the initiative, US military and civilian agencies, with the help of a coalition of Western and regional countries, would establish accommodation and service facilities in the Negev near Gaza, possibly in the Shivta – Ktzi’ot area. These camps would serve as temporary safe havens with services for the residents of Gaza for several months and up to a year until the end of the Israeli military operation.
According to BESA, the idea can be implemented with the following principles:
- Gaza residents would be offered financial support and other incentives to temporarily leave the area.
- American soldiers, with the help of international organizations, would receive Gaza residents at border crossings and perform security checks, identity verification and documentation.
- The residents would be transported in secure convoys to large accommodation facilities established and secured with the support and funding of Western and Arab countries, led by the United States.
- Israel would participate in security oversight of the process, allowing Hamas operatives to be identified to keep them out of the civilian population moving into the area.
- The coalition managing the safe zone (Coalition for the Day After) would plan the process for their return to Gaza together with those living in the camps. The main local actors would be identified and the framework for a local civilian governance system would be established for the future administration of Gaza.
- Once the military operation in northern Gaza is completed, the return of civilians – with a clear plan and private financial support – to their residential areas can begin.
The Shivta – Ktzi’ot area has been mentioned as a possible location for the temporary camp, where there is not only a national park but also two army bases and a large prison, which during the ongoing war has been used as a detention camp for Hamas fighters.
The merit of BESA’s plan is that it can be implemented with the resolve of Israel and the United States, and likely with the support of several Arab countries and the wider international community. Furthermore, the project would separate the civilian population of Gaza from the Hamas elements, enabling faster and more efficient Israeli operational activities in the southern and central Gaza areas than the current situation, when Hamas loses its civilian shield. The project would also create conditions for the development of civil society and local government immediately after Hamas’s military structure in Gaza has been destroyed and/or the hostages have been released.
The weakness of the plan is that it is mainly limited to the solution of the humanitarian crisis, which of course is also a significant improvement on the current situation. Instead, a longer-term vision of the Two-State model is missing, as is improving the status of Palestinians in the West Bank.
Source: The Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies
The article first appeared in the online publication Ariel-Israelista Suomeksi.