A fascinating but chilling article in The National Review summarising the latest developments between China and the Philippines as they haggle over some specks of islands - albeit, some of them exceedingly oil/gas rich! - in the South China Sea. Diplomacy has failed and now the Philippines are taking the case to the Hague for a judicial ruling which, as China is a signatory, should be binding on all concerned. The Chinese are furious which is, perhaps, an indication that their case is not strong. Enter - from on high, natch! - 'The One' who in a visit to Japan promised absolute American support in defence of Japanese territory. Moving on to the Philippines, he signed a mutual self-defence policy but:
To the dismay of many Filipinos, Obama made no comparable statements during his trip to Manila, where he consistently sought to reassure China that (a) Washington takes no position on the South China Sea territorial disputes and (b) the new security pact (EDCA) with the Philippines was not directed at Beijing. At some point, Obama went so far as stating, “It’s inevitable that China is going to be a dominant power in this region,” encouraging the Philippines to pursue a diplomatic resolution to its territorial disputes based on international law.
'Mister Wishy-Washy' strikes, or perhaps, shakes his hands from the wrist down the way he does when he trots down the steps of his plane, and suddenly the Filipinos begin to understand how the Israelis feel! Much has been made of Obama's 'P2A', Pivot to Asia, but all that seems to have happened is that he has lost his balance in doing the pivot. The writer of the article, Richard Javad Heydarian, also points out that in this modern communications age the people of China have been easily whipped up into a high state of national fervour over these Islands and the notion that China 'owns' most of the South China Sea. If the Comunist Party of China finds itself becoming even more unpopular when their economic policies hit rough water then bullying, flag-waving and conflict in the South against very weak opposition will suit them nicely.
In the meantime, the Philippines would be well-advised to look around for allies who can be depended upon but quite where I do not know!