At least four explosions have been recorded in Iran during the last two weeks, in sites deemed sensitive. Iranian authorities have spoken of “accidents”. Serial bad luck or sabotage? Impossible to know for sure. But several experts question the probabilities of such a succession of coincidences.
Posted on July 9 2020 at 700
La Presse
Explosions
On the night of 25 at 26 June, an explosion occurred near the military site of Parchin. According to the New York Times, satellite images show that 'It would be a missile production plant. Iranian authorities have found a gas leak. On 30 June, 18 people died in an explosion in a Tehran clinic; gas cylinders are said to have caught fire in the establishment’s basement, Iranian officials said. On July 2, a blast followed by fire hit the Natanz nuclear complex. Last Tuesday, two people died in a new explosion in a factory, about twenty kilometers from the capital.
Underground operation?
The international community has never hidden its concerns about Iran, particularly over its nuclear activities. It would not be the first time that a clandestine foreign operation has been carried out on Iranian territory. “It’s possible it could be an accident, although I’m not personally convinced,” said James Devine of Mount Allison University in New Brunswick. In the Iranian context, we cannot exclude it. It is not unusual for things to break or not go as planned in Iran. But that being said, it’s probably the Americans or the Israelis [qui en sont les auteurs]. “
Nuclear
Why these attacks – if they are indeed attacks? “Between Iran on the one hand and the United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia on the other, there has been a war going on for years, largely clandestine,” recalls Thomas Juneau, of the University of 'Ottawa. Since the United States turned its back on the Iranian international nuclear agreement, tensions have been high between the two countries, as evidenced by events at the start of the year 2020, with the missiles in Iraq and the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani.
PHOTO ARCHIVES FRANCE-PRESSE AGENCY
On July 2, a explosion followed by fire hit the Natanz nuclear complex.
Iran has admitted that the explosion at the Natanz site had pushed back its nuclear program, possibly by several months. Heavily affected by COVID – 19, destabilized by divisions internal politics and afflicted by economic sanctions, Iran is currently in a vulnerable position.
United States, Saudi Arabia, Israel
M. Guess that the U.S., with Donald Trump in a difficult position in a year of re-election, could be behind an alleged attack. One way to force the Iranians to move, he believes. Benjamin Radd, a researcher at the University of California at Los Angeles, sees all the signs of a possible Israeli intervention. Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz fueled the rumors with an ambiguous statement in the aftermath of the explosions, stressing that the Hebrew state could not let Iran have the nuclear bomb, before adding: “We are not necessarily tied to everything that is going on in Iran.” Julian Spencer-Churchill, of Concordia University, believes that it could rather be a message launched by the United States with Saudi Arabia, in particular against Iran's support in the war in Yemen.
Cyberattacks
The explosions could be an Israeli response to an alleged cyber attack against its drinking water facilities last April, reported in particular by Financial Post. The pump operating problem would have been identified without causing the expected damage.
PHOTO DAN BALILTY, ARCHIVES ASSOCIATED PRESS
“As far as cybersecurity is concerned, we know that Iran has very sophisticated offensive means,” notes Mr. Juneau. Iran's potential targets are “as prepared as they can be” against a possible cyber attack, says Radd, but “it is not possible to prevent it from 100% when you rely on a machine ”.
– With Agence France-Presse, the New York Times and the Haaretz