For now, no. In spite of Sandy Hook, the average citizen still supports the 2nd Amendment. So do a majority of Congress-critters. The latter fear what would happen at the ballot box if they supported bans and confiscations. As long as the Constitutionally-mandated process for enacting federal legislative remains in place, it's unlikely there will be national gun confiscations stemming from Sandy Hook.
But what if Sandy Hook is repeated? What if another nut job shoots up another kindergarten classroom? Or worse--what if several well-coordinated gunmen assault a restaurant or some other public place, killing dozens, and escaping the scene. What if "the media" discover they belong to some "militia group", striking out in support of the 2nd Amendment? What if the media report that other militia groups all over the country have come out in solidarity?
Now what about gun confiscations? Whether the militia attack is real or faked, public sentiment could change overnight. We might have put guards in public schools, people would say, but we can't guard EVERY public place! With "dangerous militia groups" posing a threat to American citizens, wouldn't disarmament be a viable course of action?
And yet, it's likely an attempt at national gun confiscation would be met in some quarters with armed resistance. The bloodshed might stay localized, but what if it didn't? What if confiscation triggered a nationwide anti-Fed insurrection? Would the government risk its own existence by launching a gun confiscation program?
Maybe not. But here's one final "what if" for you to consider: What if the leaders in the federal government come to realize that a collapse of the economy and society are inevitable?
Put yourself in their shoes. You know a collapse is coming. You don't know when. You know a collapse with millions of armed citizens would mean nationwide chaos and bloodshed. And probably the end of your government. You want to prevent that.
Here is your choice: Let the collapse happen whenever it does, and take your chances against all those guns. Or try to grab as many of the guns as you can, at a time of your own choosing, provoking an insurrection that might be less lethal? Of course the confiscation itself might trigger the collapse, but that was going to happen anyway.
That sounds like the plot of a Hollywood movie, doesn't it? It couldn't be a strategy, could it?
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Pete Ferron