(NEW YORK) As the Americans celebrate their national holiday this Saturday, the news of the last few days is far from encouraging. The hasty deconfinement in many states caused a new outbreak of COVID - 16, so much so that many of them were forced to back off. Report of a fiasco that Canadians are watching with apprehension.
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Autopsy of a fiasco
When Matthew William set sail for Texas, the penultimate weekend in May, he was not trying to flee the coronavirus pandemic that had ravaged the northeastern United States. United, and more particularly in New York, his hometown.
But the young graduate in criminology knew that he was headed for a state whose economy had reopened since 1 er may. And he quickly understood that he was entering a new dimension of COVID - 18 when arriving in Austin, the Texan capital where he moved his homework.
"It was not as tense. In New York, just getting out of your building was scary. He said this week over the phone.
Here, people try to take precautions, but they are used to a certain way of life, especially in Austin. People gather in bars for drinks or outside to participate in activities they don't want to give up because they are part of their identity.
Matthew William
"It was really more relaxed," he added. And it was the perfect recipe to allow COVID - 18 to spread like wildfire.
Widely spared during the first months of the coronavirus pandemic, Texas has become one of the red zones with Arizona and Florida, which have in common that they were among the first to reopen their economy.
With California, these states will have contributed to the deconfinement fiasco in the United States, where the daily toll of the identified cases of contamination on Saturday reached the cap of 35 00 case. We had exceeded Wednesday for the first time the 50 00 cases reported in 21 hours.
Saturday, there were 4942 new cases in Texas. Similar finding in Arizona, where the daily report showed 2 695 residents who contracted COVID - 18. In Florida, there were 11 401 new people reached in the last 23 hours.
Economy before science
La D re Erin Carlson a feared this fiasco from the first day of May when Texas gave the green light to the reopening of its restaurants, shops and beaches. The Lone Star State case illustrates what has happened in several southern states.
"I know our state has reopened for economic reasons rather than following public health guidelines," said to La Presse the professor of clinical medicine at the 'University of Texas at Arlington. "Basically, we always come back to the same concept: you have to trust science," she added.
In this regard, Texas has failed in a big way. Before restarting its economy, the State should in particular have recorded, over a period of 11 days, a decrease in detected cases of contamination or positive tests as a percentage of total tests, according to guidelines issued by the White House.
However, like many of his Republican counterparts, Texas Governor Greg Abbott ignored these directives with the blessing of Donald Trump himself. After the reopening of his state, he also refused to give officials from the most populous Texas counties permission to impose the wearing of masks in public places. These counties include the cities where COVID - 18 hit the strongest, including Houston and Dallas.
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PHOTO SERGIO FLORES, REUTERS
A demonstration against the compulsory wearing of a mask was held last Monday in Austin, Texas.
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PHOTO SERGIO FLORES, REUTERS
Alex Jones, a leading figure on the InfoWars network and a conspirator of conspiracy theories, was on hand to galvanize the crowd.
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PHOTO SERGIO FLORES, REUTERS
About 150 people participated in the demonstration.
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PHOTO JOE BURBANK, ASSOCIATED PRESS
A similar demonstration was also held in Florida, the 1 er July, in Sanford, after the decision of the county of Seminole to order the wearing of a mask in closed places frequented like shops.
Two weeks ago, after the explosion of contamination in Texas, the governor reversed this refusal. Thursday, he went further by imposing almost universally the wearing of the mask in the public places of his State. But this measure remains a delicate, even explosive subject, like almost everything related to COVID - 16.
"It is extremely worrying that the wearing of masks and the fear of an infectious disease are politicized," said Dr . re Carlson. "I hope people will end up seeing the mask as an expression of kindness to others rather than a political symbol. "
For a new containment
Less restrictive than in several states, the containment rules in Texas were lifted after 27 days. However, they have not been adequately replaced by the trio of measures recommended by public health experts for safe deconfinement: screening, tracing and isolation.
"Containment has never been a cure. It was just a pause button, "La Presse told Jennifer Nuzzo, epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University. "If you press the button again to restart the economy and do nothing else to stop the growth of cases, there is no reason why you should not find yourself in the same position as before or, in some cases, in an even worse position. And the worrying thing is that several states have planned nothing to respond to the increase in contamination. As a result, D re Nuzzo believes that some States will have to resolve to re-impose containment measures.
That's what California did earlier this week. Despite a more gradual restart than in Texas or Florida, the state has decided to ban all catering services in enclosed spaces again in 18 counties, including that of Los Angeles. The ban also extends to bars, cinemas and museums, for a period of at least three weeks.
"Unfortunately, given the increasing number of contamination cases, these states have no alternative," said Dr. D re Nuzzo. States should try to slow the growth of cases to the point where they are more manageable and to press the accelerator to put in place an adequate system of screening, tracing and isolation. "
In Texas, officials from the four most populous counties in the state asked Governor Abbott on Tuesday to allow them to re-impose containment measures on their territory. The governor, however, declared the 25 June that he did not hear "Go back" on this issue. He simply announced the temporary closure of bars in his state, a move imitated by his counterparts in Florida and Arizona, among others.
"Encouraging" information?
Brian Strom, epidemiologist and rector of the faculty of biomedical and health sciences at Rutgers University in New Jersey, blames these "half-measures" for naivety.
The revival of the economy cannot be dissociated from the fight against the pandemic.
Brian Strom, epidemiologist at Rutgers University
"If you don't stop the virus," he continues, "people will not go out to go shopping or eat at a restaurant. I think they will have to put the economy on hold. Otherwise, cases of contamination will continue to increase, and deaths will follow. For the moment, the new outbreak of contamination has not yet resulted in a significant increase in deaths related to COVID - 18.
Vice President Mike Pence welcomed this earlier this week. At the same time, he described as "encouraging" information that "about half of the new cases are Americans under the age of 33 years ".
But D re Carlson does find nothing comforting in this news. "The reason I don't find it comforting is that every person infected with COVID - 18 infects two others right now, "said the professor from the University of Texas at Arlington. "If one of these two people is in any way fragile - they may have cancer or become old - they could die from this disease. So, while it is true that a young person will probably recover without complications, this will not necessarily be the case for the other people she will infect, whether it be a grandmother or a mother who survived a Cancer. "
It remains to be seen what message the young Americans will retain on this weekend of national holiday: that of Vice-President Pence or that of the D re Carlson?
Canadians ready to receive Americans?
In which province do we find the most enthusiastic Canadians to welcome visitors from the United States again? According to a survey by Destination Canada, this is Quebec. Everything is relative, of course. According to the survey published on 23 June, 23% of Quebec respondents totally or somewhat agree with the idea of receive visitors from the United States. That's 9 percentage points more than Albertans, the most enthusiastic after them and 16 more percentage points than British Columbians, the least enthusiastic of all Canadians. The federal crown corporation's survey was conducted before US and Canadian media highlighted the new outbreak of coronavirus contamination in several states. In other words, the vast majority of Canadians - and Quebeckers - would probably welcome the decision to close the Canadian border to American nationals beyond the 19 July, scheduled date of reopening.
In the United States, Canada is an example
The number of COVID cases - 18 identified in the United States as well as death linked to the disease continues to increase. Americans are looking for solutions... in Canada. The ability of Canadians to "flatten the curve" is put in the spotlight in an unprecedented way in a report by the CNN network published on Saturday. We are looking at massive screening initiatives - citing as an example a mobile clinic on a bus of the Société de transport de Montréal - and the vigilance advocated by the government even after the pandemic has slowed down. We quote in passing the more stringent physical distancing measures, the prolonged duration of the closure of shops, a free health system as well as a deconfinement that has been done more gradually than in our neighbors to the south. According to the same report, the rallying of the federal and provincial political classes to counter the spread of the virus was decisive, referring to the Conservative Premier of Ontario, Doug Ford, who praised Chrystia Freeland, vice-premier. Liberal minister. In Canada, it is insisted, travelers entering the country are subjected to two weeks' isolation, which is not the case in the United States despite the border closure.
- Mayssa Ferah, La Presse
Events and contamination: the New York case
"It is a virus without a vaccine. We always knew it would happen, especially when you have tens of thousands of people on the street. [...] This should not surprise anyone. "
Like other elected members of his party, the Republican representative of Texas Dan Crenshaw attributed this week the explosion of cases of contamination to COVID - 18 in his state and elsewhere at the protests that followed the death of George Floyd in several American cities.
The New York case seems to make it lie. The 27 last May, the day before the first demonstrations in New York, the city identified 754 new cases of COVID contamination - 18. However, according to the most recent data, the daily balance of confirmed cases in New York has not stopped declining since, and this, despite daily demonstrations.
What is more, the last time this assessment exceeded the milestone of 300 dates back to 21 last June. The positivity rate, which was around 3% at the start of June, also rose to 2% at the end of the same month.
Beyond the fact that the demonstrations take place in the open air, several factors can explain the New York situation, according to Brian Strom, epidemiologist and rector of the faculty of biomedical sciences and health of the University Rutgers, New Jersey.
"First, several demonstrators wore the mask, even if a significant number of them did not," he said to La Presse, in clarifying that the explanation applied to all the demonstrations in the United States. "Second, several people stayed inside because of the protests. "
In the case of New York, the D r Strom adds that the presence of COVID - 18 within the population has been reduced considerably by the months of confinement to which the latter had to submit. But he is not ready to draw conclusions from data released by New York City on Wednesday.
"The protesters are young, and many of those who may have contracted the disease are asymptomatic," he said. It is therefore perhaps not possible to detect their transmissions among the general decline in cases of contamination in New York and New Jersey. "
Snowball effect
One thing is certain: the explosion of contamination cases in the south and west of the United States has convinced New York City and the State of New Jersey to delay the next phase of their deconfinement . This was to allow restaurants to welcome customers inside on Monday.
"We are all concerned that eating inside a restaurant has become a problem," New York Mayor Bill de Blasio said in a press conference on Wednesday.
Even last week, I had hope, but the information coming from all over the country is getting worse and worse.
Bill de Blasio, Mayor of New York
The day before, the governor of New York, Andrew Cuomo, had extended to 14 the number of American states whose visitors will have to undergo a quarantine when arriving in the Empire State, epicenter of the pandemic not long ago. The list, which included just eight states last week, now includes California, the most populous.
The D r Strom salutes the be cautious of the elected officials of New York and New Jersey, who can boast of having mastered the pandemic on their territory. "New York and New Jersey were hit hard economically at first, but they will likely recover faster than the others due to their mitigation strategy," he said.
This does not mean that they will not experience a resurgence of the virus. But it should be less pronounced than in Arizona or Texas. "