There is a theme running through the discussions of political pundits that I'm getting more than a bit tired of -- because it makes no sense. It is that the Republicans will win the mid-term elections this year, and maintain control of the House, because the president's job approval numbers are too low.
This election is not on the presidency. That was decided a couple of years ago, when people overwhelmingly re-elected President Obama. This year's election is on Congress -- an extremely unpopular Congress. A Congress that is much more unpopular, and has a much worse job approval rating than the president.
The two charts above are from RealClearPolitics, and they show what all the recent polls say about the job approval of both Congress and the president. And the opinions of the public on the president and on Congress are not even close. In fact, I'd venture to say that Congress would probably love to have the president's approval numbers.
The public is mad at everyone in Washington, but they are much madder at Congress than they are at the president -- and the people they are most mad at are the Republicans (who control the House, and have enough members in the Senate to obstruct any bill they want). If anyone needs to be worried this year about the coming election, I believe it is the Republicans.
The president will still be president after the November election is over. But if there is a voter revolt, which the extremely low numbers for Congress would suggest, then there may be a significant number of Congress members that will be looking for a job next year.
And here is one more chart, this time from the Rasmussen Poll, that shows just how angry the public is with Congress: