There are those who would look at the cumulative box office totals for Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice and tell you the “results are fine; not a runaway success, not a disaster, just fine.” After grossing an additional $5.5m in North America this weekend, it is now up to $319.5m domestic, $532.1m international and $851.6m worldwide off of a $250m production budget and who the heck knows how much on marketing. That makes it the 11th all-time highest-grossing superhero movie in North America, and 7th highest worldwide, without adjusting for inflation.
Those are the statistics Warner Bros. is happy to brag about. They sure sounded impressive coming from the stage during the studio’s presentation to theater owners at CinemaCon two weeks ago. But, holy crap y’all, what Batman v Superman is doing at the box office is unprecedented in the worst possible way. As I have said multiple times by now, no superhero movie has ever made this much despite falling so fast after its opening weekend. WB is launching its entire cinematic universe off of a movie which is declining at a rate on par with superhero movies which were either franchise-killers or non-starters, but is that actually a faulty comparison? Is there something to the argument that because BvS’s opening weekend was so large its subsequent drop-offs are acceptable if not somewhat expected?
The Weekend Drops
This chart is limited to only those superhero movies which declined by at least 65% in their second weekend:
Hulk (2003) ▼ 69.7% ▼ 56.3% ▼ 55.4% ▼ 58.0% ▼66.4%
Batman v Superman (2016)
▼ 69.1%
▼ 54.5%
▼61%
▼ 38.6%
▼???
Elektra (2016) ▼ 69.0% ▼64.4% ▼ 70.7% ▼ 69.9% ▼51.6
Origins: Wolverine (2008) ▼ 69.0% ▼ 44.3% ▼ 45.1% ▼ 52.0% ▼ 50.2%
Fantastic Four (2015) ▼ 68.2% ▼ 54.3% ▼ 52.3% ▼ 38.2% ▼ 59.5%
Kick-Ass 2 (2013) ▼ 67.2% ▼ 55.4% ▼ 67.4% ▼60.6% ▼ 59.9%
X-Men: The Last Stand (2006) ▼ 66.9% ▼ 52.7% ▼ 51.4% ▼ 38.1% ▼ 54.4%
Green Lantern (2011) ▼ 66.1% ▼ 63.6% ▼ 52% ▼ 56.8% ▼71.9%
Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer (2007) ▼ 65.5% ▼ 54.3% ▼ 53.6% ▼ 61.5% ▼ 54.0%
BvS finally managed a respectable drop in its fifth weekend, but, then again, so did Fantastic Four. This drop still corresponded with BvS leaving the box office top 5 for the first time. It has reached the point in its release cycle where if it was actually well-liked it could keep making significant money for several more weeks (just look at Zootopia), but that is probably not in the cards for BvS.
The Fanboy/Fangirl Argument
“We’re not concerned with the drop,” has been Warners domestic distribution chief Jeff Goldstein’s stance on the film’s steady decline. “We’re most focused on where we are in total. And our global number is huge.”
Elsewhere, Goldstein and other box office analysts have hinted they believe BvS has fallen victim to extreme fanboy/fangirl inflation, i.e., the insane demand among hardcore comic fans to see Batman, Superman and Wonder Woman on screen together for the first time led to a mad rush in that opening weekend which could not be maintained in the subsequent weekends. Harry Potter & The Deathly Hallows Part 2 is pointed to as an example of another film which, due to the hype surroundings its release, enjoyed a huge opening followed by a nearly 70% decline in its second weekend. If that was an acceptable drop since the final Harry Potter movie was obviously a monumental cultural event why should BvS be any different?
Right now, BvS‘s multiplier is 1.92x, and if it ends its run with $336m (tying Spider-Man 3) its multiplier will be 2.0. Let’s look at how that currently stacks up next to other superhero movies:
The All-Time Worst Multipliers for Superhero Movies
Batman v Superman (2016)
$166m
$319m (for now)
1.92x
Watchmen (2016)
$55.2m
$107.5m
1.94x
Elektra (2016) $12.8m $24.9m 1.96x
Origins: Wolverine (2008) $85m $179.8m 2.11x
Hulk (2003) $62.1m $132.1m 2.12x
Fantastic Four (2015) $25.6m $56.1m 2.18x
Green Lantern (2011) $53.1m $116.6m 2.19x
Amazing Spider-Man 2 (2011) $91.6m $202.8m 2.21x
Spider-Man 3 (2007) $151.1m $336.5m 2.22x
Other than Watchmen, all of the above movies were meant to have direct sequels which obviously never arrived, but there will be two spin-off DC movies (Suicide Squad, Wonder Woman) before BvS‘s direct sequel. That’s what sets it apart from the rest, even though it currently has the worst multiplier. For example, it’s not like Sony delivered a kickass Sinister Six movie just a couple of months after audiences were less than enthusiastic about The Amazing Spider-Man 2 .
How That Compares to The Dark Knight Trilogy & Man of Steel
Batman v Superman (2016) $166m $319m 1.92x
Man of Steel (2013)
$116.6m
$291m
2.49x
The Dark Knight Rises (2012) $160.8m $448.1m 2.78x
The Dark Knight (2008) $158.4m $534.8m 3.37x
Batman Begins (2005) $48.7m $206.8m 4.24x
How That Compares to The Marvel Cinematic Universe
Film
Opening Weekend
Final Domestic Gross
Multiplier
Batman v Superman (2016)
$166m
$319m
1.92x
Iron Man 3 (2013)
$174.1m
$409m
2.34x
Thor: The Dark World (2013)
$85.7m
$206.3m
2.40x
Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015)
$191.2m
$459m
2.40x
Iron Man 2 (2012)
$128.1m
$312.4m
2.43x
The Incredible Hulk (2008)
$55.4m
$134.8m
2.43x
Captain America: First Avenger (2011)
$65m
$176.6m
2.71x
Captain America: Winter Soldier (2014)
$95m
$259.7m
2.73x
Thor (2011)
$65.7m
$181m
2.75x
Avengers (2012)
$207.4m
$623.3m
3.00x
Ant-Man (2015)
$57.2m
$180.2m
3.15x
Iron Man (2008)
$98.6m
$318m
3.22x
Guardians of the Galaxy (2014)
$94.3m
$333.1m
3.53x
This chart is a good example of the imperfect nature of the multiplier. You could make convincing arguments that Guardians, Iron Man and Avengers were the most warmly received of all the MCU movies which is why their multipliers were so high, but it’d be dang difficult to lump Ant-Man in with the rest of them as being somehow equally popular.
Maybe the best comparison really is to simply look at other big movies, regardless of genre:
How It Compares to the Other Members of the $150m Club (Every Movie to Have an Opening Weekend at or North of $150m)
Film
Opening Weekend
Total Domestic Gross
Multiplier
Batman v Superman (2016)
$166m
$319m
1.92x
Spider-Man 3 (2007)
$151.1m
$336.5m
2.22x
The Deathly Hallows Part 2 (2011)
$169.1m
$381m
2.25x
Iron Man 3 (2013)
$174.1m
$409m
2.34x
Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015)
$191.2m
$459m
2.40x
Hunger Games (2012)
$152.5m
$408m
2.67x
Catching Fire (2013)
$158m
$424.6m
2.68x
The Dark Knight Rises (2012)
$160.8m
$448.1m
2.78x
The Avengers (2012)
$207.4m
$623.3m
3.00x
Jurassic World (2015)
$208.8m
$652.2m
3.12x
The Dark Knight (2008)
$158.4m
$534.8m
3.3x
The Force Awakens (2015)
$247.9m
$935.9m
3.7x
Even when isolated to a comparison to other films in its same tax bracket, so to speak, BvS is still shaping up as the most front-loaded blockbuster of our times, indicating that despite what WB wants to believe there is more than just the fanboy/fangirl effect at play here.