That is what the latest poll is showing. Public Policy Polling (one of the top polling organizations in the last election) conducted a survey of the district between April 19th and 21st of 796 voters in that district (with a polling margin of error of 3.5 points). Their survey found that Elizabeth Colbert Busch has now staked out a significant lead in the race. Here are the numbers:
IF THE ELECTION WAS TODAY, WHO WOULD YOU VOTE FOR?
Elizabeth Colbert Busch (Democrat)...............50%
Mark Sanford (Republican)...............41%
Eugene Platt (Green)...............3%
Undecided...............5%
And this is a district that does not have a favorable opinion of President Obama -- giving him a 10 point higher unfavorable rating than favorable (41% favorable to 51% unfavorable). But they have an even more unfavorable view of Sanford than they do the president. Here are the poll's favorability numbers for both Sanford and Colbert Busch:
MARK SANFORD
favorable...............38%
unfavorable...............56%
not sure...............7%
ELIZABETH COLBERT BUSCH
favorable...............56%
unfavorable...............31%
not sure...............13%
There are still a couple of weeks to go, but it looks like Sanford has a very hard row to hoe. The district's voters may like Sanford's Republican positions, but they don't think much of him as a person -- and voters tend not to vote for people they don't like.