It is generally assumed that confrontations
between Islam and the West are one of the most critical clashes of
civilizations since the battle of Tours and Poitiers. However, China may emerge
as another main collision counterpart to the Islamic world, because China has
replaced the United States as the top oil importer of the world last September,
before “overtaking” its GDP (“China surpasses US as biggest oil importer”; New
York Post; October 10, 2013). This implies that China will have more contacts
with Islamic nations overseas, and more frictions with them are expected as seen
in Africa. This will undermine China’s self-assumed position as the liberator
of Islam from Western dominance and the leader of developing nations. Also, the
Chinese economy will be more vulnerable to political challenges in the Islamic
sphere than those of the West.
According to the U.S. Energy Information
Agency’s “China Country Report 2012”, main oil exporters to China among Islamic
nations are Saudi Arabia (1st), Iran (3rd), Oman (5th), Iraq (6th), Sudan
(7th), Kazakhstan (9th), followed by Kuwait (10th) and so forth (“Fueling a New
Order? The New Geopolitical and Security Consequences of Energy”; Brookings
Institution; April 15, 2014). So heavily dependent on Islam oil, China need to adopt
tightrope foreign and domestic policies in the Middle East and Central Asia, in
order to secure its economic interests and strengthen its power on the global
stage.
In the Middle East, China’s primary
strategic focuses are Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. Iran has been in close
relations with China since the Islamic Revolution. However, it is an archrival
against Saudi Arabia in the Persian Gulf, and China needs to strike a subtle
balance between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Unlike Israel that Tehran’s fears nuclear
threats, Saudi Arabia worries Iran’s hegemony in the Gulf through Shiite
encirclement from Iraq, Bahrain, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen, to its own eastern
territory (“Next Test for Obama: Soothing the Saudis”; Los Angels Times; March
24, 2014). In a military exercise this spring, Saudi Arabia demonstrated Dengfeng 3 ballistic missiles from China. Though
Saudi purchased this missile in 1988, they kept it secret until this exercise. According
to CIA, they imported more advanced Dengfeng 21 from China in 2007, which was
not displayed in public yet (“Saudi missile parade a signal to Iran, Israeli
defense expert tells ‘Post’”; Jerusalem Post; May 1, 2014).
Saudi Arabia is critically concerned with
the Obama administration’s engagement with Iran. Secretary of Defense Chuch Hagel
had to soothe anxieties among Arab allies that the United States would not
sacrifice security ties with Persian Gulf allies as it restarted nuclear talks
with Iran, at the Gulf Cooperation Council this May (“Hagel Says Iran Deal Won’t
Weaken Gulf Security”; Eurasia Review; May 15, 2014). There is nothing strange
that Saudi Arabia turns to China as the security umbrella appears unreliable,
and China needs oil from there. But is China really willing to get involved in
geopolitical and religious rivalries between Saudi Arabia and Iran?
Unfortunately, China is in no position to behave as a lovable and good customer of oil, while
leaving dangerous responsibilities entirely to the United States, and to some
extent to Britain and France, as Japan took it for granted from the 1960s to
the 80s. China has to manage the power game in the region on its own, in order
to augment influence and secure oil supply. Arms export is a key policy for
these objectives.
Even a non-oil exporter like Turkey is a potential
market for China’s arms export. Under Islamist Erdoğan administration, Foreign
Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu envisions Turkey at the heart of the Afro-Eurasian
sphere, and moving closer to Islam and Asia, rather than the West, which is a
deviation from Kemalism. China seeks more influence on a keystone country for
its Middle East and Eurasian strategy. This is typically seen in the Chinese
missile controversy between Turkey and its Western allies. The Chinese
Precision Machinery Import and Export Corporation (CPMIEC) offered generous
conditions to sell their anti-air missile systems, including lower price and
less restrictive requirements for technological transfer. Western rivals such
as Raytheon/Lachkeed Martin and Eurosam were about to be edged out by Red
China, which could have dissolved the Trans Atlantic alliance. However, with
pressures from NATO allies, Turkey’s missile deal with China was annulled (“Why
Turkey May Not Buy Chinese Missile Systems After All”; Diplomat Magazine; May
7, 2014). Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was involved in persuading Turkey
to cancel the deal when he met Prime Minister Recep Erdoğan last October (“Turkey
Cancelled the Missile Deal with China, due to the meeting with Abe?”; Xinhua News;
October 31, 2013). However, the missile deal shows China’s formidable potential
to penetrate defense markets in the emerging economies, according to Denise Der,
Research Intern at the National Defense University.
Despite such a Great Leap Forward, China has
an inherent disadvantage to tighten its grip on the Middle East. In the recent
operation to search the missing Malaysian airliner in the southern Indian Ocean,
China sent a huge squadron of 18 warships, coastguard vessels, a civilian cargo ship
and an Antarctic icebreaker. It has become apparent that China needs overseas
naval logistic network if it really were to be a blue water navy. China uses
Australian ports for this mission, but most of the Indo-Pacific sea lane
countries are allied with the United States (“Search for MH370 reveals a
military vulnerability for China”; Reuters News; April 22, 2014). More
political and economic presence implies more contact with people in the region,
which leads it more likely that Chinese are attacked by extremists. Despite rapid
naval build up as shown in aircraft carrier Liaoning, poor backup will undermine
China’s independent power projection capability in the Middle East.
Central Asia is landlocked and adjacent,
thus, China does not have to worry about navy backup. However, China is already
notorious for natural resource exploitation and environmental destruction in
Africa, and even in the Far Eastern territory of Russia, its anti-Western comrade.
More business with the Islamic sphere will cause more frictions between China
and local people accordingly. This may have some impact on Xinjiang. Quite interestingly,
Rabiya Kadeer, President of the World Uyghur Congress, comments that China takes
repressive approaches to Uyghurs but not to other Muslim minorities so as not
to offend Central Asian neighbors (“Incidents of unrest in the East Turkestan
reflect a Uighur Awakening”; The New Turkey; November 6, 2013). How long can China
adopt such a divide and rule approach in Xinjiang? Economic and cultural frictions
with Central Asian residents can easily spill over into China’s north west frontier.
Uyghur resistance is growing sharply this year (“Q&A: Xinjiang and tensions
in China's restive far west”; CNN; May 23,2014). China’s gas guzzling economy can
trigger further conflicts there.
The Sino-Islam clash will bring unprecedented
uncertainties in the Middle East and Central Asia. Traditionally, China has assumed
itself the leader of developing nations against Western imperialism, as
typically seen in the aid to the TANZARA railway. But today, China is more
likely to become another target of hatred among local extremists, along with
the West. Remember that kaffirs are kaffirs for Islamic radicals, whether Christians
or non-Christians, white or non-white. What influence will the clash bring to China’s relationship with geostrategic rivlals, primarily with the United States
and Japan, and also, with Europe?