1) Elysium- 35M Weekend, 35M Total
I think Elysium is going to win the weekend. This is basically just a gut instinct. I’ve seen people projecting 40M for Planes, and We’re The Millers is tracking really well too. Elysium has an R rating, which could hurt it a little bit, but District 9 wasn’t hurt by an R rating. The only thing that might hurt Elysium is the fact that all four new releases will likely break 20M each this weekend.
2) Planes- 30M Weekend, 30M Total
There are a TON of kids films in the marketplace. I can’t believe Planes can break through to first place against Despicable Me 2, Turbo, and The Smurfs 2 all absorbing some families. Plus, Percy Jackson is aiming for some of the tween audience.
3) We’re The Millers- 25M Weekend, 35M Total
Millers technically opens on Wednesday. The tracking is pretty high, the reviews are low. We’ll know more once it opens tomorrow, but it looks like it has grabbed enough attention. Rumors are that it is actually outpacing Horrible Bosses, which opened above 25M, but didn’t have a 5 day opening either.
4) Percy Jackson: Sea Of Monsters- 18M Weekend, 25M Total
Percy Jackson didn’t even make 100M the first time around. It is unlikely that this Percy Jackson is going to make much of an impact, but it should do so-so.
5) 2 Guns- 14M Weekend, 50M total
Last week’s #1 movie will drop half to about 14M this weekend.
6) The Wolverine- 11M Weekend, 110M Total
Wolverine should also dip half, but should still do double-digits.
7) The Smurfs 2- 8M Weekend, 40M Total
I can’t see The Smurfs holding up well. It’s been called a bomb, and that stigma will carry into this weekend.
8) The Conjuring- 8M Weekend, 119M Total
With no new direct competition, The Conjuring will just slip to around 8M this weekend.
9) Despicable Me 2- 6M Weekend, 336M Total
With some competition from Planes, it’ll be interesting to see how this holds, but I’m guessing it still won’t dip even 50%. The Smurfs and Turbo will take harder hits.
10) Grown Ups 2- 4M Weekend, 123M Total
Adam Sandler has to withstand We’re The Millers this week. I think it’ll finally dip over 50% this weekend.