1) How To Train Your Dragon 2- 32M Weekend, 103M Total
A film like How To Train Your Dragon 2 is unlikely to drop 50%, and honestly unlikely to drop 40% in week 2, but that’d be the hardest drop you’d see. Depending on whether or not Think Like A Man Too blows up, you could be looking at a shift into first place. It’ll be a photo finish between the top 3 titles though, most likely.
MOVIE REVIEW: How To Train Your Dragon 2
2) Think Like A Man Too- 30M Weekend, 30M Total
Yes, Kevin Hart is a bigger name since the first film. However, this is still a romcom, and while the first one did well, it opened against very little competition and it opened in the spring. That magic worked for 22 Jump Street, and it kinda worked for How To Train Your Dragon 2. I don’t think Think Like A Man Too will explode, and will likely do about the same, maybe even a tad less, than its predecessor on opening weekend (33.6M).
3) 22 Jump Street- 29M Weekend, 113M Total
A slightly less than 50% dip would keep 22 Jump Street in the fight for first place. It’s been performing really well mid-week, and it might even hold well over the weekend.
4) Jersey Boys- 14M Weekend, 14M Total
This hasn’t been tracking well, but with its target demo being over the age of being able to be tracked by social media, that doesn’t mean much. Even if you assume that no one under the age of 50 is going to Jersey Boys, you’ve left out a very large demo that has been flocking to art house films like Chef and Belle in limited release. With Jersey Boys going wide, it has the potential to hit those types in smaller markets that haven’t even gotten Chef yet.
5) Maleficent- 12M Weekend, 185M Total
Maleficent hasn’t been dropping 50%, so another 45% drop to 12M is likely.
6) Edge Of Tomorrow- 10M Weekend, 74M Total
Tom Cruise’s latest had an OK dip last week, which indicates that audiences are spreading good word of mouth. It might be the 6th film to gross over 10M this weekend, especially considering neither new entry is an action film or a sci-fi film.
7) X-Men: Days Of Future Past- 6.5M Weekend, 217M Total
MOVIE REVIEW: X-Men: Days Of Future Past
8) The Fault In Our Stars- 6M Weekend, 96M Total
MOVIE REVIEW: The Fault In Our Stars
9) The Rover- 2M Weekend, 2.5M Total
Expanding into “nationwide” release, I’m betting it’ll do about what Chef has been doing in wide release. I don’t expect much from The Rover, even with Robert Pattinson as a lead.
10) Godzilla- 2M Weekend, 195M Total
MOVIE REVIEW: Godzilla