Travel is already being ravaged by extreme weather," said Alex Hawkins, strategic outlook editor at The Future Laboratory. "By 2033, the map could be completely redrawn. We will have to broaden our horizons and become more creative about where, when and how we explore." Europe saw heat waves last summer that reached hot and humid temperatures of 40 degrees and barely dropped in the evenings. Currently, northern Ethiopia is facing severe drought, while devastating floods are occurring in the south, just above the equator, and in Kenya and Somalia. In the Alps, last winter's ski season was largely a muddy affair.
Higher temperatures are already impacting the decision-making of nearly 70 percent of travelers, who say they are now reconsidering where they would traditionally go, according to a recent report from Marriott Bonvoy with The Future Laboratory. After analyzing the travel plans of 14,000 travelers across the continent and the Middle East for the next three years, a quarter of us are already planning to travel at different times of the year, while almost a third are considering cooler destinations to avoid extremes. Hawkins suggests that destinations like Scandinavia, Scotland and even the upper parts of Canada are more attractive. "Agriculture, and especially viticulture, is already following that trajectory - so travel is not far behind."
Heat waves are already impacting our vacation choices, says Zoritsa Urosevic, executive director of the United Nations World Tourism Organization. "Climate change will lead to new emerging destinations and a change in the perception of tourism," she says. In the Roaring Twenties, when F. Scott Fitzgerald and his beloved Zelda drank rosé in Antibes, the French Riviera was a winter destination. One wonders what the author of The Great Gatsby and his socialite wife would think of time in their former villa, now the Belles Rives hotel, at the height of summer in the scorching 2020s.
"I have already seen the dramatic impact of 3 degrees higher temperatures in Greenland, with devastating consequences," said Hjörtur Smárason, tourism development strategist and former CEO of Visit Greenland, the world's largest island in the North Atlantic Ocean. "After two summers of forest fires and floods across Europe, we are seeing the numbers shifting north. The Mediterranean will be the place to escape in the summer," he says. Because Arctic Lapland already has summer days above 30 degrees Celsius, he sees the Baltic Sea and Ukraine as future beach holiday destinations, with the Estonian islands set to surpass those in the Adriatic Sea. "On the popular beaches of Lolland in Denmark, investors are already lining up to build the sustainable beach hotels of the future - this could extend to the southern coast of Ukraine, from Odesa to Mariupol," predicts Smárason.
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Meteorologists used to be able to predict the seasons for monsoons, snowstorms and hurricanes. But as events such as the wildfire in Evros, Greece this summer, the largest ever recorded in the EU, prove, it is unpredictable. Dennis Schaal of industry experts Skift expects the classic holiday to be turned 'inside out or outside-in' as holidaymakers look for indoor activities to replace outdoor activities in the heat. Off-season holidays will become the norm, while many trips will become more expensive. Schaal points out that Greece is increasing its hotel taxes, especially for luxury stays, "to set up a climate-driven disaster fund."
Our cold weather escapades also need to be reexamined. Last January, ski resorts across Europe also experienced some of the highest temperatures ever recorded for that time of year, from Germany to the Czech Republic. Small resorts in France only opened for a month, and in the case of La Sambuy, near Trois Vallées, for the very last time. Canada never got cold enough for Ottawa's Rideau Canal: the world's longest naturally frozen ice rink was out of use for the first time in 52 winters. Kiosks on the canals wait anxiously to see whether it will be cold enough to skate in 2024.
Too hot. Too cold. Too much water. Not enough water. Water Scarcity is another disaster movie coming soon to a travel world near us. Due to falling river levels in Europe, cruises along the Danube and Rhine were diverted in 2023. The recent drought in the French territory of Mayotte, off the east coast of Africa, shows us how an island community can be left completely without drinking water. Organizing holidays in the heat is thirsty work with all those spas, golf courses and swimming pools to quench. The Center for Responsible Travel reports that the average tourist can consume up to ten times more H2O while away than locals. Throw in agriculture and compete with tourism for this ever-dwindling resource, and trouble lies ahead.
Jonny Bealby, from small-group specialist Wild Frontiers, asks: "If there are more droughts, will water wars break out between the countries bordering the world's major rivers? Will melting ice caps and rising sea levels leave some iconic travel destinations underwater forever? Will an increase in extreme heat and associated wildfires make travel to Australia, Greece and California untenable? Will Provence feel like the Sahara as Cornwall's climate competes with Provence?"
Before you start stockpiling tap water, adventure travel expert Bealby doubts this will be the case this decade. "If we look back at 2013, the only thing that has changed besides travel costs is the enormous increase in the number of travelers worldwide." What is certain is that prices will rise. "As insurance companies see greater risk, as governments impose more green taxes on flights and operators look to rebuild balance sheets decimated during the pandemic, travel costs will rise."
Could the knock-on effect of international travel becoming more expensive be a desire to travel the world digitally? "I'm not sure virtual travel will replace real travel - video hasn't killed the radio star," says James Wallman, founder of World Experience Organization. "But there is a big rise in immersive combined with nature. This shared, connected reality - as opposed to the virtual reality that separates us - shows the pace of growth, and why Apple's Vision Pro mixed-reality headset and 5G will be a game changer." It's hard to imagine that spending time in nightspots like Outernet London or Illuminarium in the United States will take the place of sultry squares and jungle peaks, but it may scratch an itch in the long run. "We were able to visit the Amazon via Tottenham Court Road where the Pixel Artworks piece was interactive, fun, free and allowed us to catch a butterfly on our phones," says Wallman. "By 2033, we could take a trip to a virtual Machu Picchu, mixed with Manhattan and a roller coaster - or Manhattan underwater, which will hopefully still be a fantasy and not yet a reality of the climate crisis."
There is good news. The cost of wind energy has fallen by 70 percent, the price of solar energy has fallen by 90 percent, and a government report earlier this year said that only 1 percent of the British public are against renewables. However, aviation is slower in the transition to green energy than we would like. Despite all the talk about sustainable jet fuel, hydrogen power, vertical takeoffs and landings, there are no major changes coming in the near term. And the super-rich boarding private planes is especially uneasy in light of the latest Oxfam report. Climate Equality: A Planet for the 99% highlights that the world's richest 1 percent are responsible for more emissions than the poorest 66 percent. Of these, it is women and girls, indigenous peoples and the marginalized and poorest who are most disadvantaged. Will it be considered socially unacceptable to fly, let alone private jets, by 2033? Those concerned about how the other, more than half, live may want it banned - or at least restricted. Will frequent flyer programs continue to reward air travel? Or do reward points only exist for train travel? On the plus side, we cover a few "rail miles" on those summer sleeper trains to the Baltic Riviera.
Listen to Saturday's The Standard: Sustainable travel podcast to learn more about the green future of tourism. Find expert advice and sustainable travel tips at standard.co.uk/sustainable-travel