London Mayor again Boris Johnson photo: BackBoris2012
The London 2012 election count is now complete and Boris Johnson has won a signal victory over challenger Ken Livingstone. This result – a victory by 60,000 votes – was closer than eve-of-poll predictions suggested and will provide welcome relief for David Cameron amidst a predictably poor round of mid-term local elections for the Conservative party.
Make no mistake: this result is a triumph for Boris, a candidate who has been lambasted most recently as a “balloon” by comedian Eddie Izzard. For all the suggestions that Ken was the only serious candidate for mayor, it should be noted that in no election for mayor has Ken’s vote been stronger than the turnout for Boris in 2008 or 2012. A quick analysis of 1st and 2nd preferences in 2000 indicates that Livingstone polled 776,4267 votes and in 2004 he polled 828,380. In 2008, however, Boris took 1,168,738 and yesterday he took 1,054,811.
It is true that the margin of Boris’s support has fallen to 62,538 but that’s still a healthy majority when it is considered that that figure represents two-thirds of the votes cast for Liberal Democrat Brian Paddick and that the newly directly elected mayor of Liverpool only took 58,458 votes in total.
It cannot be argued that this is a result based on media hype without Boris having been tested in the cauldron of political reality. This poll comes following a long, at times bitter, very public election. Boris has been challenged and he has been able to satisfy enough of the London public for second time.
Boris has been challenged and he has been able to satisfy enough of the London public for second time.
The wider picture is also interesting for what it reveals about London’s attitude to minority parties. For the past four years, the London Assembly has had amongst its ranks the British National Party’s Richard Barnbrook. Happily, and despite the prevailing difficult economic circumstances, Londoners have not turned to extremists with any great fervour this time around. Carlos Cortiglia, the BNP’s mayoral candidate took only 28,751 votes (1.3 percent) in the first round. London-wide voting was equally limp for the BNP, falling 3.3% on their 2008 showing, to a little over 47,000 votes. Also on the far right, the National Front polled 0.4 percent (it didn’t fight the election in 2008) which does not nearly account for the drop off in support for the BNP.
The candidate to watch is wildcard independent Siobhan Benita.
The candidate to watch is wildcard independent Siobhan Benita. Vaunted by former UK Cabinet Secretary, Sir Gus O’Donnell, Ms Benita came fifth with 3.8 percent of the vote and a shade under 8,000 votes fewer than Lib Dem Paddick. This is creditable given her cold start in the race. She has promised to contest the election in 2016, telling the BBC that people don’t want the “Punch ‘n’ Judy stuff”.
This is the famous refrain of outsider candidates. There has, however, been plenty of “Punch and Judy” in this race and the electorate have accepted – and at times revelled in – it. In a race, however, in which she is a more familiar face and which Livingstone and Paddick will surely not contest nor, undoubtedly, Johnson, she might enjoy more success. That said, the focus on the London mayorality will now dimish and she’ll face a real fight to maintain any momentum without a party machine behind her. Much will depend on the choice of candidates by the leading parties.
In wider news across England, plebiscites on directly elected mayors were held in Birmingham, Manchester, Newcastle, Sheffield, Wakefield, Coventry, Leeds, Bradford, Bristol and Doncaster. Of those, Doncaster voted to retain its mayor and Bristol was in favour, but elsewhere results were negative. Turnout was low, however, reaching a nadir of 24% in Manchester, Bristol and Nottingham.
Despite the result being portrayed as a defeat for the coalition on outlets including Sky News, Housing Minister Grant Schapps clarified that the purpose was to give people their say, adding that “no-one is forcing mayors on anyone.” It is, however, difficult to appreciate this result as anything other than a vote against the Coalition following sinister warnings from existing civic leaders about the cost of elected mayoralties. The question of elected mayors remains ripe for debate.