Are there 17 Republican votes. Maybe. There are five senators who will probably vote to convict, and another 12 who could do so.
The website borntorunthenumbers.com has studied the issue, and here is how they see the possible 17 votes to convict:
Almost Certain to Convict (5)
· Mitt Romney, Utah. The 2012 GOP presidential nominee has become the conscience of the right, often critiquing Trump and the only GOP vote to impeach in 2019. Plus he is solid in Utah, where Trump is not terribly popular, and is not up for reelection until 2024.
· Lisa Murkowski, Alaska. The longstanding thorn in Trump’s side has all but announced she is going to vote to convict.
· Pat Toomey, Pennsylvania. Toomey has announced he will not run for reelection in 2022. Like other Republicans before him who were on the verge of leaving office (see: Jeff Flake), Toomey has broken with Trump and has been openly supportive of impeachment.
· Susan Collins, Maine. Collins just won a surprisingly easy reelection in Maine over a well-funded opponent. She has long been lampooned for her “concern” with Trump, and vilified for her view that Trump had “learned his lesson’ in the Mueller investigation. It is time for her to shore up support from center-left Mainers and translate that concern into a conviction vote.
· Ben Sasse, Nebraska. Sasse has been unsparing of his critiques of Trump throughout the transition, and at times before then, and just won reelection, so he is a near certain conviction vote.
Open to Impeachment and Possibly Waiting for McConnell (12)
We’ve listed these Senators roughly in order of the likelihood they will support impeachment, with all of them more or less contingent on McConnell’s decision.
· Mitch McConnell, Kentucky. The Senate Leader just won his reelection and is concerned about regaining the Senate in 2022, and believes ridding the GOP of Trump is central to its future. He openly supported impeachment and has said he is on the fence about conviction. It is all up to him; if he votes to convict, enough GOP Senators will surely follow to get to 17. If he does not, it could be just the five above joining the Democrats.
· John Thune, South Dakota. Thune, the GOP Senate’s number two as Minority Whip, will surely follow McConnell. His claim to anti-Trump fame was memorably calling Trump’s efforts to overturn the Senate’s certification process “would go down like a shot dog.”
· Shelley Moore Capito, West Virginia. She has indicated that Trump “owns” the insurrection and that his actions were “inexcusable.” And she was just reelected, so she will not face a threat for six years.
· John Cornyn, Texas. Cornyn just won reelection, and is widely known to hold Trump in utter contempt, and has broken with him on a few issues, notably the Wall, COVID and foreign policy. He knows Texas is turning purple and Trump has to be ejected as part of a GOP reinvention for him to survive there.
· Thom Tillis, North Carolina. Tillis just won a second-term in a close one in a purple state, and he’ll need a conviction vote to win again in 2026 in his state.
· Richard Burr, North Carolina. Burr has decided that he will not run for reelection in 2022. Like Toomey, he thus faces no electoral consequences for a conviction vote. He ran the Senate Intelligence Committee with surprising dignity in the Trump years.
· Jim Inhofe, Oklahoma. The Chair of the Armed Services Committee – succeeding John McCain – was furious over Trump’s veto of the National Defense Authorization Act. Trump was unhappy with the lack of provisions relating to social media and protections for military bases named for Confederate generals – and Inhofe was incensed Trump would veto legislation that had passed routinely for 60 consecutive years. He was just reelected and amply protected if he chooses to vote to convict.
· Mike Lee, Utah. Lee was surprisingly forceful in opposing Trump’s attempts to upend the certification process, especially since he has been a long-time ally of one of the ringleaders of the movement, Ted Cruz.
· Rob Portman, Ohio. Portman passes for a moderate these days in the GOP, and occasionally exhibits modest pangs of conscience with respect to Trump. He will likely convict with McConnell providing him cover, but it will be a tough one since he is up for reelection in 2022.
· Chuck Grassley, Iowa. The GOP Senate’s elder statesmen (at age 89) has been highly critical of Trump’s actions with respect to the insurrection, declaring that Trump has already disqualified himself. But he is up for reelection in 2022, and, despite his age, just may do it. And Iowa is becoming redder every election.
· Deb Fischer, Nebraska. Fischer is the quieter of the Nebraska Senators relative to Ben Sasse, but she issued a strong statement in support of the Biden certification, has been silent on the impeachment and thus appears to be open to the Senate process.
· Tom Cotton, Arkansas. Cotton, a deeply conservative Trump supporter, has 2024 presidential aspirations and already he has chosen a different path than his neighbor and fellow potential contender, Josh Hawley. Cotton chose to oppose Hawley in the certification battle, supporting Biden, and he may play his hand all the way with a conviction vote, which also helps him to clear the 2024 field of Trump. It’s a huge gamble for the young Arkansas Senator.