According to The Hollywood Reporter, "Tracking services have [] debuting in the $55 million-$65 million range, but may believe it will come in on the high end, considering Marvel's track record." By recent Marvel Studios standards, that's actually a bit on the low side, but it would actually be a victory considering Ant-Man 's lower-than-normal production budget ($130 million), soap opera-like development history, and seemingly goofy premise of a man who becomes teensy tiny and uses a helmet to control ants.
However, as I have covered in extensive detail elsewhere on the site [ here's the link], tracking services are almost always wrong these days when it comes to pre-release projections for big movies. The various tracking agencies used by the studios base their projections on historical data for similar movies, telephone surveys conducted at least 3 times a week in the five weeks leading up to the release, and various other factors. We treat their projections like weather forecasts when in fact their actual goal is to simply provide studios with ballpark figures which can help them decide where to spend their advertising dollars. A forecasting insider told Deadline, "We're not paid to predict box office, rather identify pockets of strength, threats and opportunities in the marketplace for the studio. ... It's a five-week journey with daily phone calls." The co-founder of what was once the leading tracking agency, New Research Group, told , "The real intention (of tracking) was to gauge advertising materials and where a film falls within the competitive landscape."
So, really, what that $55 million-$65 million range means for Ant-Man is that Marvel Studios now has a general idea of what kind of opening they might be in for if they change nothing about their marketing strategy from this point forward. They've probably also been given loads of demographic data telling them where pre-release awareness of Ant-Man is strongest and where it is the weakest. Maybe they were told they needed to do more to help audiences understand Ant-Man's connection to the rest of the Marvel Cinematic Universe. So, they brought back Leslie Bibb's reporter character from the first two Iron Man movies, and made her the face of a viral marketing campaign in which a new MCU news infotainment program links the events of Age of Ultron to Ant-Man:
If the past is any indication, Marvel Studios will probably manage to grow Ant-Man's potential audience in the next two weeks and deliver an opening well above projections. They've done that now for every single movie they've released since The Avengers, only coming in under projections with this year's Avengers: Age of Ultron:
Iron Man 3"Based on tracking, Iron Man 3 could open between $135 million and $145 million in North America, ahead of the $128.1 million debut of Iron Man 2 three years ago." - THR
Actual Opening: $174.1 million
Thor: The Dark World"The sequel, returning Chris Hemsworth to the title role, debuted on tracking Thursday, and is pacing to open north of $75 million, according to rival studios with access to tracking." - THR
Actual Opening: $85.7 million
Captain America: The Winter Soldier"Box-office observers believe the sequel will open north of $80 million domestically. More bullish forecasters believe it will hit $85 million, as sequel Thor: The Dark World did." - THR
Actual Opening: $95 million
Guardians of the Galaxy"Gunning for one of the top August openings of all time in North America, Guardians of the Galaxy is expected to open to at least $65 million this weekend, a strong start for Marvel Studios' new franchise. Some believe director James Gunn's Guardians has a shot at approaching, or crossing, $70 million, although no one is placing any bets considering the steep downturn overall at the summer box office." - THR
Actual Opening: $94.3 million
Avengers: Age of Ultron"Most are betting that Age of Ultron will launch to $210 million or better for the weekend, setting a new threshold for how high a film can open (one tracking service even has it at $224 million) [...] According to Fandango, presales for Age of Ultron are equal to presales for all previous Marvel films combined, while MovieTickets.com reports that advance sales are nearly four times greater than The Avengers." - THR
Actual Opening: $191.2 million
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Age of Ultron was a bitch to predict because the first Avengers set the record for biggest opening weekend. Until Jurassic World came along later this summer, no other movie had ever opened with more than $200 million. Plus, no one accounted for the competition Age of Ultron ultimately received from the boxing PPV event, Pacquiao vs Mayweather. As such, as far as projection vs. actual performance is concerned Age of Ultron is an outlier in Marvel Studios history unless Ant-Man also fails to meet or beat expectations.