A Very Early View Of 2016 Primaries

I know its much too early to put much stock in presidential polls for 2016. After all, that's about 3 years from now. But political junkies like myself just can't help doing it. What our political future may hold is nearly as interesting as the politics of the present. So, in that spirit, let me bring you the results of Public Policy Polling's view of the possible presidential candidates, and their current strength, in each political party.
For the Democrats, it's almost a foregone conclusion -- even this early. If Hillary Clinton wants the nomination, I seriously doubt that any Democrat could snatch it away from her. The latest Public Policy Polling survey (conducted between March 27th and March 30th of 666 Democratic primary voters and 1,125 Republican primary voters -- with a margin of error of 3.8 points for Democrats and 2.8 points for Republicans) shows Clinton with a huge lead over everyone. Here are the numbers:
Hillary Clinton...............64%
Joe Biden...............18%
Elizabeth Warren...............5%
Andrew Cuomo...............3%
Mark Warner................2%
No one else got over 1%
But what happens if Clinton decides she doesn't want to run -- a slim possibility, but a possibility nonetheless. PPP asked that of Democrats, and got the following results:
Joe Biden...............49%
Elizabeth Warren...............11%
Andrew Cuomo...............10%
Kirsten Gillibrand...............7%
Mark Warner...............3%
Deval Patrick...............2%
Brian Schweitzer...............2%
No one else got over 1%
The really interesting name on the lists is that of Elizabeth Warren. She's only been a senator since January (after unseating Scott Brown in Massachusetts), but she's already vaulted into third place -- second place if Clinton doesn't run. That's impressive. A lot of progressives like the way she's taken on Wall Street and the big banks, and stood up for consumers. I doubt she'll run in 2016, but she could be a real possibility for 2020 or 2024.
Meanwhile, the Republican primary race is shaping up to be a five-person race between Rubio, Paul, Christie, Ryan, and Bush. Everyone but them is down in single-digits (and Rick Perry is showing extremely poorly by trailing the whole pack). Here are the GOP numbers:
Marco Rubio...............21%
Rand Paul...............17%
Chris Christie...............15%
Jeb Bush...............12%
Paul Ryan...............12%
Rick Santorum...............5%
Bobby Jindal...............4%
Rick Perry...............2%
No one else got over 1%