The Oscars aren't what they used to be, both in good ways and bad. The ratings have been in a freefall for years. The voting body is at least a little less predominantly old white dudes, and the new members have proven to be remarkably resistant to the charms of Oscar bait movies (see: The Post's mere 2 nominations this year), but not entirely immune (see: The Darkest Hour' s 6 nominations this year). In fact, the voting body, as a whole, is increasingly falling more in line with the Indie Spirit Awards, turning the Oscars into a progressive evening devoted to awarding offbeat, experimental, and genre movies, most of which very few people ever bothered to see.
That's problematic for the Academy's bottom line, but if you're a movie lover it's a remarkably encouraging development. With all of that change, though, comes inevitable culture clashes between new and old voters. Is everyone really okay with Three Billboards' suspect approach to domestic abuse and racism? What of the statutory rapey quality to Call Me By Your Name's love story or the literal beastiaility at the center of Shape of Water's fairytale romance? And do the old white voters totally get, well, Get Out? Some of them didn't even bother to watch it!
How is all of this going to shake out tomorrow night when the Oscars are finally handed out? There have been so many precursors awards (Golden Globes, BAFTA, SAG, etc.) at this point that many of the awards feel as if they are already signed, sealed, and delivered, but could the Academy have a surprise in store? This year's Best Picture race, after all, seems more wide open than ever before. Could something other than Shape of Water or Three Billboards swoop in to destroy everyone's Oscar ballot in their office pool? Here's what I see happening:
BEST PICTUREWhat Should Win: Phantom Thread
Explanation: I'm really going out on a limb here. This is supposed to be a two-horse race between Shape of Water and Three Billboards, which have been trading blows back and forth at the key pre-cursor award shows for months now. But that also means they've both been in the spotlight non-stop and thus subject to backlash and/or whisper campaigns, such as the curiously timed plagiarism lawsuit filed against Water. That very same kind of atmosphere felled Christmas releases like La La Land and The Revenant (both Christmas-day releases) from winning in recent years, losing instead to Moonlight and Spotlight (both of which came out much earlier in the awards season). Like Get Out, neither of those films went into the night with that many nominations, and they certainly didn't leave the theater that night with an arm full of awards either. But they each at least got Best Picture, partially because the Academy's preferential balloting system favors the generally well-liked and penalizes the divisive.
There's also the element of social relevance, which Spotlight and Moonlight had in spades over the competition. It's more complicated this year since Get Out, Three Billboards, and Shape of Water all speak quite poignantly to our disturbed times, two of them directly, the other metaphorically. However, Three Billboards seems to be a film which people like less and less the more they have time to think about it (I actually don't share the same animosity toward that movie, but the backlash has been impossible to ignore). Shape of Water scoring the most nominations might have lent it an air of "overrated" in some voter's minds.
But then there's little ole Get Out, a movie which literally opened the same weekend as last year's Oscar ceremony. No Best Picture nominee has ever been able to say that, and it lends Get Out an unprecedented level of time-tested respect. There are no thinkpieces tearing it apart ala Three Billboards. There's no credibility-questioning lawsuit ala Shape of Water. There's just a movie which came out all that time ago and only grew better in people's memories, not worse. Also, it doesn't hurt that the cultural phenomenon of Black Panther kicked off while Oscar voting was still open.
Of course, I happen to personally prefer Phantom Thread, which is my favorite of this year's Best Picture nominees. Really, though, other than Darkest Hour or The Post I can live with pretty much any of the nominees winning.
BEST DIRECTORWho Will Win: Guillermo Del Toro
Who Should Win: Guillermo Del Toro
Explanation: Really, you've got three movies ( Get Out, Lady Bird, Phantom Thread) dependent on getting the best performances out of the actors, one dependent on meeting rather challenging technical problems AND getting the best performance out of the actors ( Shape of Water), and finally one which is all technique and practially no directing of actors whatsoever since they might as well just be props as far as Nolan cares (Dunkirk). Since Del Toro managed to pull off both directing the actors and directing inventive, highly challenging visual sequences, he likely gets the nod. It's also this: Shape of Water is his masterpiece. He's due.
BEST ACTORWho Will Win: Gary Oldman
Who Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Explanation: The Academy is changing faster than expected, but it's not so different these days that it can resist Gary Oldman's hammy, blatantly "For Your Consideration!!!" performance as Winston Churchill. Daniel Day-Lewis in Phantom Thread, by comparison, is as restrained as we've seen him be in years, if ever. Because he's won already he doesn't even seem a real candidate here, not when the Academy is switching over to recognizing the new or awarding the long overdue, but it still feels like Day-Lewis' work in Phantom Thread has gone seriously underappreciated, even with this nomination.
BEST ACTRESSWho Will Win: Frances McDormand
Who Should Win: Sally Hawkins
Explanation: McDormand is fierce, a force of nature overtaking the film, but she's also granted too few opportunities to play anything other than primale rage. She does it well, but it's not as varied a performance as something like Fargo. Hawkins would get my vote due to the bigger challenge of playing mute as well as playing a wider range of emotions, but McDormand is a lock to win, even though she used her SAG acceptance speech to more or less ask people to vote for her younger competition to give them the exposure she neither wants or needs.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTORWho Will Win: Sam Rockwell
Who Should Win: Patrick Stewart...what do you mean he wasn't nominated for Logan?
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESSWho Will Win: Allison Janney
Who Should Win: Laurie Metcalf
Explanation: It's a battle between two former TV actresses, and predictably the bigger performance has been winning the day, allowing Janney to test out her acceptance speech at just about every awards show she's been to. The problem is although Janney is undeniably funny throughout I, Tonya she's also playing a walking cartoon, granted just one scene displaying any shading or hint of why she is the way she is. It's a big, over-the-top part, and she knocks it out of the park. But she never seems like a real person. Metcalf, by comparison, does, and effectively serves as Lady Bird 's emotional anchor.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAYWhat Should Win: Get Out
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAYWhat Will Win: Call Me by Your Name
BEST ANIMATED FILMWhat Should Win: Coco. What? You seriously thought I'd say Boss Baby? Or Ferdinand?
BEST DOCUMENTARYWhat Will Win: Faces Places
What Should Win: Icarus
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHYWho Will Win: Roger Deakins
Who Should Win: Roger Deakins
BEST COSTUME DESIGNWhat Will Win: Phantom Thread
What Should Win: Phantom Thread
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGNWhat Will Win: The Shape of Water
What Should Win: The Shape of Water
BEST FILM EDITINGWhat Should Win: Baby Driver
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
What Will Win: The Shape of Water
What Should Win: Phantom Thread
BEST ORIGINAL SONGWhat Will Win: "Remember Me"
What Should Win: "A Mighty River"
BEST VISUAL EFFECTSWhat Will Win: War for the Planet of the Apes
What Should Win: BEST SOUND EDITINGWhat Will Win: A Fantastic Woman
What Will Win: Darkest Hour
I'm predicting Get Out for Best Picture, but everything else I largely see going the way it has at most of the pre-cursors awards. In the acting categories, the lead races seem over, but Defoe and Metcalf have an outside chance to pull off upsets in supporting. I just don't think it's going to happen.
What about you? What do you think is going to win Best Picture? Is there any prediction I made which sounds totally crazy to you? Let me know in the comments.