Betting for the Derby at Epsom on June 1 lost another key player on Friday when Arabian Crown, the Godolphin operation's leading candidate for the Classic, was ruled out following a setback at Charlie Appleby's Newmarket stable. His absence leaves Ancient Wisdom, second in the Dante Stakes on Thursday, the only likely Derby runner for Appleby's stable as he searches for a third win in the Epsom Classic since 2018.
Arabian Crown, who won three of his four races last season including the 10-furlong Zetland Stakes at Newmarket in October, was one of the first three-year-old colts to establish himself as a serious Derby contender when he entered the Classic Trial at Sandown on April 26 by three and a quarter lengths.
Related: The economy is good for Dante, but the picture for Derby is bleaker than ever
At the time, City Of Troy, last year's champion junior colt, was the big favorite for both the 2,000 Guineas and the Derby. Eight days later, however, City Of Troy defeated just two of their ten rivals on the line in the Guineas, and Arabian Crown's Sandown form has looked better by the day over the past fortnight as one disappointing Derby trial followed another followed at Chester, Lingfield. and York.
As a result, Arabian Crown was a solid second favorite at around 5-1 before being ruled out on Friday. In his absence, and at the end of a fortnight that would normally bring some clarity to the Derby market, the 2-1 favorite - City Of Troy - is a colt knocked out of sight on his last start. while the 5-2 second favorite - Thursday's impressive Dante winner Economics - needs a £75,000 top-up and is quoted as "having a run".
City Of Troy's trainer Aidan O'Brien said this week that the son of Justify, an American Triple Crown winner on dirt, is possibly the most talented horse he has ever sent to Epsom, and having already won nine Derby winners has trained, that could be enough for many gamblers to maintain confidence in two weeks.
The fact that another real runner has emerged from the race may also increase the chances of Economy being replenished, but at the same time his connections have raised concerns about his stamina for the 12 furlong journey at Epsom, as well as his relative. inexperience, which was evident after he came out front here on Thursday.
Economy would be making only the fourth start of his career if he went to the Derby, and while it is true that Shaamit, Haggas' previous winner of the Classic, had even less experience when he won in 1996, in his third career start and his Haggas was the first outside the girls' company and has few peers when it comes to taking horses at their own pace and thinking about their careers in the round.
If Haggas sticks to his Plan A with Economy and focuses on targets later in the season, punters looking for an alternative to City Of Troy can look to James Fanshawe's Ambiente Friendly, the winner of Lingfield's Derby Trial, of Los Angeles. Angeles, a stable companion of City Of Troy, who undertook the Leopardstown Derby Trial 24 hours later. Both stallions are priced around 6-1, while Ancient Wisdom and Diego Velazquez, fourth at home in the French 2,000 Guineas on Sunday, are around 16-1.
O'Brien saddled the favorite for the Group Two Yorkshire Cup, the feature race on the final day of the Dante meeting in York on Friday, but Tower Of London proved a serious disappointment as he finished only fifth behind Marco Botti's Giavellotto, who followed his success in last year's race by almost five lengths.
Big Rock is the key to Lockinge
The Lockinge Stakes at Newbury has been one of the most punter-friendly Group Ones of the season in recent years - the last double-figure winner was in 1998 - and it is likely to be a similar story at the final extension as Big stone (3.35) and Inspiral, the joint favorites at around 9-4, are several pounds ahead of their rivals in official ratings and in the case of Big Rock in particular there is significant room for improvement this summer.
Big Rock finished second in his first three groups in Group 1 last year, a run that included a minute-and-a-half defeat to Inspiral in the Prix Jacques Le Marois, but finally broke through at the top level in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot on Champions Day in October, when he broke well and made every effort to beat a high-class field by six lengths.
The soft surface that forced Inspiral to miss that race probably exaggerated Big Rock's winning margin, but it was still a big step forward in his form and enough to see him receive a rating of 127 from the season's end international handicappers, just 1 pound behind. the impressive Arc winner Ace Impact.
Inspiral is well ahead of her main rival in the market in Group 1 wins, as her narrow success in last season's Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf was the sixth of her career.
Her best form, however, is on a faster surface, and while Big Rock's recent switch from Christopher Head's stable to Maurizio Guarnieri is a slight concern, Aurélien Lemaitre, his regular jockey from last year, retains the ride on the straightforward frontrunner, who It could prove very difficult to pass again on Saturday.
Newbury 1.50 He has a very long absence to overcome, but So sad, a close third in the German Derby in 2022 is an interesting new recruit for Owen Burrows and potentially overpriced at around 12-1.
New market 2.05 I love Billy Boy was hit over the track and trip last time and has a clear chance of a higher figure of 4lb.
Newbury 2.25 The drop to six furlongs should be appropriate Mr. Sketch after a promising return to action at Greenham.
Nieuwmarkt 2.40 Gorak doesn't have much left to make an impact after a solid season debut last month.
Newbury 1.50 So Moonstruck 2.25 Mister Sketch 3.00 Chantilly (nb) 3.35 Big Rock 4.10 Under The Twilight 4.45 Aalto 5.15 Siyola
New market 1.30 Patsy Snugfit 2.05 Love Billy Boy (nap) 2.40 Gorak 3.15 Great Blasket 3.50 Lake Teo 4.25 Rebaatt 5.00 Tremblant
Thirst 2.00 Mademoiselle 2.35 Unspoken Love 3.10 Seantrabh 3.45 Los Toldos
4.20 Brooklyn Nine Nine 4.54 New Image 5.30 Hale End 6.02 Prospect
Bangor 3.55 Crystal Glance 4.30 King Of The Hill 5.05 Commander view 5.40 Sacre Coeur 6.15 Abaya Du Mathan 6.50 Miss Ghillie
Doncaster 4.57 Baltic States 5.35 Georgecandoit 6.07 Fiorella Princess 6.42 Ananda
7.15 Churchella 7.50 Mythical Phoenix 8.20 Kodiac Thriller 8.50 Beach Point
Uttoxeter 5.20 Dasher 5.55 Agility 6.30 Jack 7.03 Icare Allen
7.33 Ballinoulart 8.03 Happy Boy 8.33 Jasmin De Grugy
Newbury 3am Even after a 10 pound walk, Chantilly looks good to follow up on an easy win at Leopardstown last month
Nieuwemarkt 3.15 Great Blasket has found a rich vein of form and has a clear chance of completing a hat-trick.
