Quantifying offensive-zone successes, and tendencies
As I wrote here, the act of completing more than 60 offensive-zone passes (as a team) in one game had a substantial impact on the Montreal Canadiens ability to win games. The Habs won/loss record in games where they completed over 60 total offensive-zone passes (at even-strength) was 15-17. This gave them a winning percentage of .469; well above their overall 2011-12 winning percentage of .378.
A player with possession of the puck in the offensive-zone has 3 main options. He can pass the puck to a teammate, he can attempt to beat an opposing player 1on1 (deke), or he can direct a shot on net.
With this in mind, I decided to use my 2011-12 statistics to study which Canadiens players completed the most offensive-zone passes, dekes, and shots per-minute of ice-time. I've also broken down which percentage of their total successful offensive-zone play were passes, dekes, or shots. A successful shot is defined as a shot that is stopped by the goalie, or goes in the net (not blocked, and does not miss the net) For example; if a player made 100 successful plays in the offensive-zone, and 50 of them were passes, that would mean that 50% of his successful offensive-zone plays were passes. This helps give us an idea of both tendencies, and strengths for each player.
The graph is a visual representation of how many successful plays within these 3 categories each player listed averaged during each minute of ice-time.
*There were 13,706 individual events used to produce these results*
SUCCESSFUL OFFENSIVE-ZONE PLAYS PER-MINUTE PLAYED
FORWARDS
SCOTT GOMEZ completed substantially more offensive-zone passes per-minute played than any other Montreal player, and was also among the leaders in dekes per-minute played.
- 67% of Gomez's successful offensive-zone plays were passes.
- 19% of his successful o-zone plays were dekes.
- 15% of his successful o-zone plays were shots.
TOMAS PLEKANEC was successful with the seventh-most offensive-zone passes and dekes per-minute played.
- 56% of his successful offensive-zone plays were passes.
- 20% of his successful offensive-zone plays were dekes.
- 24% of his successful o-zone plays were shots.
PETTERI NOKELAINEN completed the least amount of passes per-minute played (among forwards), as he was successful with only 0.15 o-zone passes per-minute played.
- 50% of his successful offensive-zone plays were passes.
- 12% of his successful offensive-zone plays were dekes.
- 27% of his successful o-zone plays were shots.
BRIAN GIONTA had the third-most even-strength shots per-minute played; behind only Erik Cole and Max Pacioretty.
- 53% of his successful offensive-zone plays were passes.
- 23% of his successful offensive-zone plays were dekes.
- 35% of his successful o-zone plays were shots.
RENE BOURQUE was tied with four other forwards with the fourth-most shots per-minute of ES ice-time.
- 51% of his successful offensive-zone plays were passes.
- 17% of his successful offensive-zone plays were dekes.
- 32% of his successful o-zone plays were shots.
TRAVIS MOEN was tied for the second-least amount of successful dekes, as well as the third-least amount of successful passes per-minute of ES ice-time.
- 72% of his successful offensive-zone plays were passes; mostly on the cycle
- 13% of his successful offensive-zone plays were dekes.
- 26% of his successful o-zone plays were shots.
GABRIEL DUMONT produced the same amount of completed offensive-zone passes per-minute as both Moen and Bourque.
- 67% of his successful offensive-zone plays were passes.
- 14% of his successful offensive-zone plays were dekes.
- 14% of his successful o-zone plays were shots.
MICHAEL BLUNDEN produced the both the second-least amount of offensive-zone passes and dekes per-minute of even-strength ice-time.
- 53% of his successful offensive-zone plays were passes.
- 13% of his successful offensive-zone plays were dekes.
- 34% of his successful o-zone plays were shots.
DAVID DESHARNAIS produced the third-most offensive-zone dekes and passes per-minute of even-strength ice-time.
- 63% of his successful offensive-zone plays were passes.
- 25% of his successful offensive-zone plays were dekes.
- 13% of his successful o-zone plays were shots.
RYAN WHITE produced the least amount of offensive-zone shots per-minute of even-strength ice-time.
-84% of his successful offensive-zone plays were passes.
-13% of his successful offensive-zone plays were dekes.
-3% of his successful o-zone plays were shots.
BLAKE GEOFFRION produced the tenth-most of offensive-zone passes per-minute of even-strength ice-time.
-67% of his successful offensive-zone plays were passes.
-10% of his successful offensive-zone plays were dekes.
-24% of his successful o-zone plays were shots.
AARON PALUSHAJ produced more successful offensive-zone passes per-minute played than any player not named Scott Gomez.
-62% of his successful offensive-zone plays were passes.
-18% of his successful offensive-zone plays were dekes.
-20% of his successful o-zone plays were shots.
MAX PACIORETTY had far-and-away more successful offensive-zone shot-attempts than any other player. He also had the highest successful shot tendency. Expressed differently, this means that Pacioretty was most likely to choose to shoot, and be successful at it more often than any other Montreal player.
-53% of his successful offensive-zone plays were passes.
-12% of his successful offensive-zone plays were dekes.
-35% of his successful o-zone plays were shots.
LOUIS LEBLANC had the fourth-most successful offensive-zone shots, and dekes per-minute played.
-48% of his successful offensive-zone plays were passes.
-24% of his successful offensive-zone plays were dekes.
-28% of his successful o-zone plays were shots.
ERIK COLE produced the second-most successful offensive-zone dekes, and shots per-minute played.
-48% of his successful offensive-zone plays were passes.
-25% of his successful offensive-zone plays were dekes.
-28% of his successful o-zone plays were shots.
LARS ELLER produced the most successful offensive-zone dekes per-minute of ice-time; even more than Erik Cole. He also had the fourth-most offensive-zone passes per-minute.
-54% of his successful offensive-zone plays were passes.
-27% of his successful offensive-zone plays were dekes.
-19% of his successful o-zone plays were shots.
DEFENSEMEN
TOMAS KABERLE produced the most successful offensive-zone passes per-minute among defensemen. Surprisingly, he was also tied with 3 other d-men with the most successful shots per-minute.
-74% of his successful offensive-zone plays were passes.
-6 % of his successful offensive-zone plays were dekes.
-21% of his successful o-zone plays were shots.
JOSH GORGES did not have any successful dekes last season. This speaks to his defense-first attitude.
-75% of his successful offensive-zone plays were passes.
-0 % of his successful offensive-zone plays were dekes.
-25% of his successful o-zone plays were shots.
RAPHAEL DIAZ had the fifth-most successful passes per-minute played among defensemen.
-75 % of his successful offensive-zone plays were passes.
-5 % of his successful offensive-zone plays were dekes.
-26 % of his successful o-zone plays were shots.
FREDERICK ST. DENIS had the fourth-most successful passes per-minute played among defensemen.
-75% of his successful offensive-zone plays were passes.
-0 % of his successful offensive-zone plays were dekes.
-25% of his successful o-zone plays were shots.
YANNICK WEBER was tied for the most shots on net per-minute among defensemen.
-68% of his successful offensive-zone plays were passes.
-0 % of his successful offensive-zone plays were dekes.
-32% of his successful o-zone plays were shots.
ALEXEI EMELIN produced the fifth-most shots on net per-minute of ES ice-time among d-men.
-63% of his successful offensive-zone plays were passes.
-6 % of his successful offensive-zone plays were dekes.
-31% of his successful o-zone plays were shots.
PK SUBBAN produced the most successful offensive-zone dekes per-minute of ice-time. In fact, he had as many o-zone dekes per-minute as Max Pacioretty. Subban also tied for the most shots on net per-minute among d-men.
-53% of his successful offensive-zone plays were passes.
-23% of his successful offensive-zone plays were dekes.
-23% of his successful o-zone plays were shots.
ANDREI MARKOV produced the second-most successful o-zone passes per-minute of ES ice-time. He also had the second-most offensive-zone dekes among d-men
-69% of his successful offensive-zone plays were passes.
-10 % of his successful offensive-zone plays were dekes.
-21% of his successful o-zone plays were shots.
