The US Dollar remained fragile this week following ongoing investigations into Donald Trump’s presidential campaign. It would appear the investigation is suppressing confidence in US Dollar Exchange Rates and with every twist and turn of the investigation, US Dollar supports wains.
What has Robert Mueller’s investigation unearthed so far?
The investigation which has been led by Robert Mueller was started over five months ago. Since its instigation, twelve charges have been handed out, amongst these include money laundering and conspiracy to defraud the United States. These particular charges have been brought against President Trump’s former campaign manager Paul Manafort and former campaign official and close associate Rick Gates. Both subsequently pleaded not guilty in a Washington DC Federal court.
During the same month, George Papadopoulos – yet another campaign adviser did plead guilty to misleading the FBI over his connections with Russian officials.
Twitter accusations over official White House comments
So far, the president has successfully managed to keep himself distanced from charges which were handed out at the end of October. Instead defensively opting to divert attention on to the former Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton. In typical Trump style taking to Twitter and accusing the justice department of a lack of investigation into Clinton, rather than providing an official White House statement.
The President cited a lack of investigation into the Fusion GPS dossier – the Democrats voter research program, a reported Russian uranium deal and accompanying bribes and the infamous email scandal outcome which Trump has ceremoniously dubbed ‘the Comey fix’.
The latest investigation developments
In a new twist this week Robert Mueller the chief investigator has now subpoenaed email and documents relating to Russian keywords in order to provide evidence of collusion between the Trumps presidential campaign and the Kremlin. It would appear that as the investigation gets closer to the President as will the negative global view of his leadership, in turn, uncertainty over his tenure, will grow and therefore markets and investors feel less confident in US Dollar Exchange Rates.
Trump’s approval rating
Whilst president Trump has never become accustomed to high levels of approval or particularly cared, the latest developments from Robert Mueller’s investigation have spelt out an all-time low. One particular poll; the Harvard CAPS/ Harris poll showing the president is currently supported by just 41%, down around 4% since September. Demonstrating a continual decline in support.
In terms of his party support, however, it would appear that currently, Trump can rest easy, as the poll also concluded that 79% of Republicans remain behind the President. Readers should also note that the Harvard CAPS/ Harris poll tend to lean more favourably as highlighted by the poll below.
Likely hood that Trump will be indicted
Whilst currently the investigation circulates around Donald Trump’s confidants and crony’s, with every day the investigation goes on and more skulduggery comes to light so must the probability of charges being brought against the President. To date, no President has been removed from the White House by impeachment or criminal conviction.
However, it is known that a number of Democrats remain hell-bent on getting the president removed from power. Just Mid last week six Democrats launched an official mandate to impeach President Trump. It’s believed included in their five official complaints was Comey’s dismissal.
FBI Director James Comey who at the time was leading the investigation into collusion with Russia, who relieved of duty in May by Trump.
Whilst the probability of the Democrats being able to oust President trump currently remain small due to the Republicans control of the House and Senate. The Democrats could get their chance next year if Republican support for Trump was to decline. This would involve the Democrats winning back the House and essentially voting on articles of impeachment. This complaint would then move to the Senate and a case would be made at the supreme court.
Despite positive US economic data US Dollar exchange rates remain under pressure
Continual unrest due to the ongoing investigation has weighed heavily on US Dollar Exchange Rates with the US Dollar losing traction with the Pound and the EURO remaining range bound during the latter parts of last week.
Euro to US Dollar exchange rates
As highlighted the EUR/USD remained range bound from mid last week trading at a low of 1.1761 and a high of 1.1843. The pair closed on Friday at 1.1791.
Pound to Dollar exchange rates
The pound enjoyed a bout of steady strength against the US Dollar this week. The pair trading at the Market opening at 1.3180 before falling away due to Theresa May’s party issues. However, the Pound did climb against the US Dollar with the GBP/USD pair moving from a low of 1.3068, achieving a week high of 1.3251 and closing at 1.3214.
