Health and improved depth key to Habs turnaround
The Montreal Canadiens are a substantially better team this year, and the players' risk/reward ratings are indicative of this improvement. An increase in team-depth has added players that are producing significantly higher risk/reward ratings than those players in similar roles last season. The Habs have also added more offensive contributors to the roster, and have 12 players on pace for at least 10 goals over an 82-game season.
RISK/REWARD RATINGS
Last season the Habs had 4 forwards with even/strength risk/reward ratings above 1.20. This season, Montreal has 8 forwards with ES risk/reward ratings above that mark. Using that same benchmark, Montreal had 4 defensemen with ES R/R's over 1.20 last year; this season only 1 of the 12 defensemen who have played this season has an ES risk/reward rating below 1.20.
I'm a huge believer in the need to have forwards with top-6 talent in your top-9. The Habs increased depth has allowed them to be vastly improved in this regard. The ninth-best risk/reward rating among forwards last season was 1.06. This season, the ninth-best rating among forwards is 1.41. The same applies for defensemen, as the fourth-best risk/reward rating among d-men last season was 1.31, but has risen to 1.79 this year.
We can break the numbers down even further by focusing on both the offensive and defensive-zone risk/reward ratings separately.
The ninth-best offensive-zone risk/reward rating among forwards has gone from 0.36 last season to 0.54 this year, while the same rating for the fourth-best d-man has increased less substantially; but still went from 0.14 to 0.18.
The ninth-best defensive-zone risk/reward rating last season was 0.39 among forwards, and is 0.54 this year. The fourth-best d-zone R/R among d-men has gone from 0.98 last year to an impressive 1.29 this year.
SCORING DEPTH
Last year I wrote a piece explaining that the combination with the best odds of making the playoffs consists of at least two 30-goal scorers among at least ten 10-goal scorers. Over the previous four seasons, only one of the sixteen teams with that combination had missed the playoffs. In other words, 94% teams with this combination had participated in the playoffs.
You can read the article here
Last season the Habs were able to produce the two 30-goal-scorers necessary with Max Pacioretty and Erik Cole. The problem came down to depth, as Montreal iced only 7 players who were either on pace for, or scored at least 10 goals.
This season's roster will likely produce only 1 player scoring at a 30-goal pace. That said, it does contain an impressive 12 players on pace for at least 10 goals over an 82-game season.
The New York Rangers are a great example of a team that went in the opposite direction, as the Rangers had ten players on pace for 10-goal seasons last year, but have only 6 this season.
Quality depth remains the key to any successful hockey team. It protects against injuries and prolonged slumps, while allowing coaches to manage players' ice-time. Addition without subtraction (otherwise known as drafting and development) is absolutely tantamount to building a winning team.