It's looking like Mitt Romney wants to make another run at the presidency. He's met with all his campaign aides from 2012, and has been making the rounds of large campaign donors to see if they would be willing to pony up big money for him again. Can he win the nomination again?
It looks like he would do OK in Iowa right now. The top chart is from Gravis Marketing. The did a survey between January 5th and 7th of 404 registered Iowa Republicans (and say their survey has a 3 point margin of error). It shows Romney has 21%, followed by Bush at 14% and Walker at 10%. Everyone else is in single digits.
That's a lead, but 21% is still nothing to brag about. That would still leave 79% of Iowa delegates going to other people. With all the problems Christie has been having, I think Romney could do OK in the Rust Belt and the Northeast (states he would have a problem trying to win in the general election), But I'm not at all sure he would do very well in the South, the Southwest, the inland Western states, or the states running down the middle of the country (Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, and North Dakota.
Those are all teabagger and christian conservative states for the Republicans -- and those groups weren't really happy with Romney's candidacy in 2012. I'm not at all sure they'd be willing to support him again. In short, I don't think there is a favorite right now, and one may not develop until the primaries begin.
The chart below is by Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com. I show it here because I think he's done a good job of defining the divisions within the Republican Party -- and where the current potential candidates fit in those five divisions.
