(This image of GOP candidates wanting in the debate is by DonkeyHotey.)We're only about a week away from the first GOP presidential candidate debate -- and nobody knows who will be included in the debate, and who will be excluded. Fox News is hosting the debate, and they have said they will only allow 10 candidates to debate (although they now say they will have another shorter show for those who are left out).
I doubt that is any consolation for those who are not allowed to be one of the 10 debaters. Inclusion in the other show will almost surely label a candidate as an "also ran" -- someone who has no chance of being the nominee, and you can be sure the Republican voters will be paying attention to that (and many of them won't be wanting to waste their vote on an "also ran").
Fox has said the 10 will be chosen from the 10 candidates who average the most support in the last five "important" polls before the debate. Of course, nobody knows what polls Fox News considers to be important, and there is rumor that even Fox News is arguing about that among themselves.
There seems to be eight candidates that pretty much have a lock on a position in the debate -- Donald Trump, Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, Mike Huckabee, Ted Cruz, and Ben Carson. It is also likely that Chris Christie will be included. That leaves one position available.
That position will either go to John Kasich or Rick Perry. A couple of weeks ago, it looked like it would be Rick Perry, but Kasich has done well in the last couple of polls and may have moved ahead of Perry. It all depends on which polls Fox News chooses to use.
The chart below is by NBC News, and it shows the average of the last five national polls -- Quinnipiac, CNN/ORC, ABC/WP, Fox News, and USA Today/Suffolk). If these are the polls used by Fox, then Kasich will edge out Perry and get the nod.
That wouldn't surprise me. It would be a bit embarrassing to leave Kasich out of the debate in his home state, where he is still governor. Also, Ohio is a swing state that the Republicans need to win to have a chance at winning the White House, so Fox is likely to keep Ohio voters happy by including Kasich in the debate. Texas, on the other hand, is likely to vote Republican whether Perry is included or not.
Santorum, Fiorina, Jindal, Graham, Pataki, and Gilmore are almost sure to be excluded from the debate.
