Ventyx's 2013 North American Power Reference Case.
Ventyx, an ABB software company, announced availability of its 2013 North American Power Reference Case, a semiannually updated report detailing Ventyx’s integrated market-based fundamental model of the North American energy industry.
“Fundamental changes are underway in North America, with low-cost gas and new EPA regulations having major changes on the future plant mix,” said Ventyx GM Energy Portfolio Management Solutions Tom O’Meara. “Will cheap natural gas and renewable resources affect coal and nuclear plants’ economic viability? How will EPA regulations impact investment decisions and plant operation? These questions go to the core of investment and operational decisions in the energy sector.”
The Ventyx North American Power Reference Case provides answers to these questions based on data and forecasting by the Ventyx Advisors team. The report provides an analysis of the North American electricity market using Ventyx’s market-based model of power, gas, coal and environmental markets—accounting for the interdependency of these markets—and provides forecasts out to 25 years based on consistent economic assumptions.
A few of the key findings in the Fall 2013 report include:
- Renewable energy expansion. Renewable energy standards enacted by most states have helped development keep pace with new gas-fired capacity added for five of the last six years.
- Coal challenged. Construction of new coal-fired capacity continues to move forward, but over 10 GW of coal-fired projects were either canceled or indefinitely postponed since January 2012.
- Gas slows. Construction of new gas-fired capacity has also slowed. Similar to coal, 16 GW of gas-fired projects were either canceled or indefinitely postponed since January 2012.
- Return to economic growth. After a downward trend in total industrial sales through 2009, the U.S. market began to bounce back in 2010 and has shown a slight increase in 2012 and 2013.
- Demand-side management growth. Demand response programs have grown substantially in the last couple of years, thanks in large part to market incentives put in place by the ISOs.
