1. Drew Brees, Saints (2012 Rank: 1)
The offense runs through Brees in New Orleans. Brees threw for over 300 yards in 10 games last season and never had less than 200 yards in a contest. With Jimmy Graham healthy and Colston, Sproles and Moore all still in the fold Brees should have no trouble leading QBs in fantasy points again in 2013.
2. Aaron Rodgers, Packers (2012 Rank: 2)
Greg Jennings is gone, but after missing so much of last year it’s hard to say he’ll be missed (at least by Rodgers fantasy owners.) Randall Cobb, James Jones and Jordy Nelson should be more than enough to keep Rodgers among the league’s best. Though the addition of Eddie Lacy and Jonathan Franklin caused me to slid Rodgers into the 2 spot as one or both rookies could take a small chunk out of his yardage total.
3. Peyton Manning, Broncos (2012 Rank: 6)
Manning seemed to slow down a bit towards the end of last year, and age might be becoming a factor for the 37 year old signal caller, but Peyton proved himself to still be an elite fantasy QB last year and I fully expect him to do it again. Bottom line is he added the leagues top slot man to an already dangerous duo at WR and that should be enough to boost Peyton into the top 3
4. Tom Brady, Patriots (2012 Rank: 3)
Welker is gone, Gronkowski is hurt, and Hernandez is mixed up in something that isn’t looking good for him so far. Still, Brady has done more with less and I expect him to come through.
5. Matt Ryan, Falcons (2012 Rank: 7)
Matt Ryan set career highs in yardage and TDs last season. And he just traded one of the worst pass catching backs in the league (Michael Turner) for one of the best (Steven Jackson.) Ryan could ultimately end up finishing behind some of the other names on this list, but he’s the most reliable option as the leader of a high octane passing attack.
6. Cam Newton (2012 Rank: 4)
I’m not completely sold on this one yet, as the Panthers failed to properly upgrade the weapons Cam has to work with. Still, something seemed to click down the stretch last year and the talent is there. Year 3 might be the year it all comes together.
7. Robert Griffin III (2012 Rank: 5)
Fair warning, I’m all in on the RG3 bandwagon. I have to give Griffin the nod over the rest of the 2012 break out stars, I just love the way he plays and I think with Josh Morgan, Fred Davis and Pierre Garcon fully healthy Griffin will only get better. (I know that’s sort of ironic considering I actually have him finishing two spots below where he did last year, but Washington’s offensive line really is not as good as Griffin or Alfred Morris’ numbers last year would have you believe. And obviously injuries are a concern.)
8. Colin Kaepernick, 49ers (2012 Rank: 1)
If Michael Crabtree hadn’t gotten hurt I might have Kaep at #5. I’m also a 49ers fan. The arm talent is obviously there, but the 49ers do still love to run the ball and the NFC West features some of the leagues best cornerbacks/secondaries.
9. Russell Wilson (2012 Rank: 10)
I hate putting Wilson this low, but like with Kaepernick he plays on a team that loves to run in the NFC West. Still, I love the talent, and with Percy Harvin joining a group of receivers that was already better than people think I don’t think he’s in any danger of a sophomore slump.
10. Andrew Luck (2012 Rank: 8)
Another guy I can’t help but think is too low. Luck has the skills to finish in the top 5, he may even have the weapons with Darrius Heyward-Bey and Ahmad Bradshaw joining last year’s group. The O-Line got some upgrades, but still doesn’t inspire confidence. And Luck didn’t exactly finish strong in 2012: throwing for more than 205 yards his last four games, never completing more than 50% of his passes over that span.
11. Tony Romo (2012 Rank: 9)
He’s not going to win any popularity contests, but when you check the stats for fantasy QBs at the end of the year he’s always up there. The line still needs work, but the running game should be improved and the drafting of WR Terrance Williams and TE Gavin Escobar are signs that point to another pass heavy season for the Cowboys.
12. Matt Stafford (2012 Rank: 11)
I honestly don’t know what to make of Stafford. He struggled with injuries early in his career before coming on like gangbusters in 2011. In 2012 injuries to his teammates derailed what fantasy owners hoped would be an encore performance, but instead turned into the Calvin Johnson show. With a healthy stable of receivers and Reggie Bush in the fold Stafford is poised to bounce back, I just don’t know how far.
13. Andy Dalton (2012 Rank: 12)
If the Bengals threw more I’d probably like him more than Stafford. Still, despite playing on a run-first team lacking offensive firepower Dalton finished 12th in scoring among fantasy QBs. The Bengals spent their first 2 picks in the 2013 draft on a TE and RB who both excel at pass catching. The question is how often Marvin Lewis will let the young QB play with his new toys.
15. Eli Manning (2012 Rank: 1)
Hakeem Nicks’ injury issues hurt him last year, but with Nicks and Cruz both playing for contracts I think Eli could have a big year. Brandon Myers fits what they want to do at TE and 2nd year receiver Reuban Randle’s progress and free agent acquisition Louis Murphy’s quick chemistry with Eli make this a much deeper group at WR.
16. Ben Roethlisberger (2012 Rank: 1)
I’ll be honest, I’m not a fan, but Big Ben should have quite a few things working for him in 2013. The offensive line will be back at full health and the loss of Mike Wallace is softened by OC Todd Haley’s primarily short and intermediate pass game and the draft selections of WR Markus Wheaton and pass catching RB Le’Veon Bell.
17. Ryan Tannehill (2012 Rank: 24)
Tannehill is my sleeper pick for QB, and as such I may have him a bit high. I think he could be this year’s Josh Freeman (QB that goes undrafted, but by the end of the season has found his way on to team’s as an injury or incompetency replacement.) Mike Wallace is a deep threat to showcase Tannehill’s arm strength. Brian Hartline is one of the best pure possession receivers in the NFL and Brandon Gibson should impress in the slot. Dustin Keller is also an upgrade at TE (at least from a receiver stand point.)
18. Sam Bradford (2012 Rank: 16)
Bradford is another sleeper pick for me. The O-Line looks better, rookie speedster Tavon Austin takes over the slot, Chris Givens returns on the outside and Jared Cook re-joins the coach who drafted him in Jeff Fisher. Bradford’s gotten a raw deal in St. Louis to this point, but the 2013 roster leaves little room for excuses and with Steven Jackson now in Atlanta Bradford should step up, not only from a statistical standpoint, but from a leadership stand point as well.
19. Matt Schaub (2012 rank: 20)
Less a sleeper, more a consistently solid QB. The offense goes through Arian Foster in Houston, but with Foster’s pass catching ability and this year’s first round pick DeAndre Hopkins joining last year’s rookies LeStar Jean and Keyshawn Martin and offensive staples Andre Johnson and TE Owen Daniels the Texans have the weapons to air it out if they need to.
20. Philip Rivers (2012 Rank: 21)
Rivers has become something of a sleeper. The Chargers boast a formidable stable of WRs when they’re all healthy, unfortunately that’s no guarantee. Even 3rd round draft pick Keenan Allen is only recently recovered from injury. Throw in an aging Antonio Gates and the oft injured Ryan Matthews and you see how things can get bad quickly in San Diego. Former Patriot pass catching HB Danny Woodhead was brought in to spell Matthews and perhaps even serve as the primary back up which I find encouraging, and new Head Coach Mike McCoy is respected for his work with QBs so maybe there’s at least a chance Rivers numbers improve.
