This chart was made from the newly released Public Policy Polling survey of 559 registered Texas voters between April 10th and 13th (with a margin of error of about 4.1 points). I wish PPP had surveyed a larger sample, since only 599 voters is pretty small for a state the size of Texas -- but I don't really doubt this early result. Texas is a red state, and it would be silly for anyone to think the Republican wouldn't start the race with a nice lead.
But the campaigns haven't really started yet, and the campaigns haven't really spent any money yet on advertising (although I would recommend that Davis get started now, since she's the one with ground to make up).
There are a couple of bright points in the survey for Democrats. While voters over 45 prefer Abbott, the voters under that age prefer Davis by a pretty significant margin -- and the same can be said about Blacks, Hispanics, and other minorities. If these groups turn out in large numbers on election night, while Republicans stay at home thinking they have already won, then anything could happen. It's also a good sign that Independents are split right down the middle (40% to 40%), with 20% still undecided.
The biggest disappointment in the survey is that it shows women preferring Abbott by an 8 point margin. This should be Davis' natural constituency, and she will need to hit hard on women's issues to change those numbers.
I may be crazy, but I still think this race is winnable. It won't be easy, and it'll take a lot of hard work, but it can be done.
