Here are a couple more polls on Senate races. It looks like Warner, the incumbent Democrat, is way ahead in Virginia. He leads Gillespie by a 19 point margin. I think the Republicans can write this one off.
And Georgia continues to look good for Democrats. This state was supposed to be an easy victory for the Republicans (even though they are running a new candidate), but it isn't working out that way. The Democrat, Michelle Nunn, is only 1 point behind the Republican, David Perdue -- and that means the race is a dead heat (since that 1 point margin is well within the margin of error). This poll is not an outlier, since several other polls have shown the race is extremely close.
The chart below shows the demographic breakdown of the Georgia poll. Note that women prefer Nunn, while men like Perdue. Young voters want Nunn, while older voters want Perdue. White voters like Perdue, and Black voters like Nunn. And those making a lot of money (over $80,000 a year) prefer Perdue, while those making less than that prefer Nunn.
This race is going to come down to who shows up at the polls. Will more women or men vote? Will young people and Blacks show up in large numbers? What income groups will vote in large numbers?
This race has to be a shock for Republicans. A year ago, they expected to win easily. Now it looks like the Democrats have a good chance to snatch this seat away from them -- a very good chance.
The Virginia race numbers come from the Roanoke College Poll -- done between September 13th and 19th of a random sample of 630 likely voters, with a margin of error of 3.9 points.
The Georgia numbers come from a WXIA-TV / SurveyUSA Poll done between September 19th and 22nd of 550 voters, with a margin of error of 4.3 points.
