At last Europe is moving in our direction, by which I mean, of course, that it is moving further away and with a bit of luck and a following wind it will eventually disappear over the horizon! It was 'SoD' (Good lad, should go far!) who pointed me in the direction of a very astute piece in The Telegraph by Mats Persson in which he points out that the Kaiserin's decision to dump Dave and support Juncker 'ze Drunker' (as, I gather from the disgraceful hacks of Fleet Street, he is known to friends and enemies alike) for the top job in the 'USE'.
First of all, it will cement the practice of European parliaments going above heads of government when it comes to choosing candidates for top European jobs. At a stroke, the power of prime ministers and chancellors is devalued. The lesson for the British public is that henceforth it will be the likes of sundry socialist MEPs from East Europe and the Med who will actually run our country!
However, the Kaiserin, too, has carefully hoisted herself onto her own petard as Mr. Persson explains:
The irony of a process intended to boost transparency now being concluded via various backroom deals should not be lost on anyone. However, for Germany it also poses two huge risks going forward. First, this may set a troublesome anti-Ordnungspolitik precedent. A candidate to head the European Commission with an alleged "public mandate" who promised the Mediterranean block goodies in return for support under Qualified Majority Voting (meaning that Germany, like the UK, has no veto) surely must be Berlin’s worst nightmare. What if the next Commission President chosen by the Eurobond friendly European Parliament campaigns on a platform of debt pooling and laxer fiscal rules (on the latter, the Commission does have a key role). Berlin is just about to give away even more control over one of its key post-World War pillars.
On top of that, Dave's humiliation, which, of course, will be portrayed as another version of that famous Churchillian cartoon showing the great man standing on the cliffs of Dover and shaking his fist across the channel, will strengthen the chances of an 'OUT' vote by the British and that this will be considered a disaster in Berlin:
Secondly, Juncker’s appointment would substantially boost the risk of the UK leaving the EU, with senior Government figures now considering whether Cameron should threaten to recommend a “No” vote in the promised 2017 EU referendum. As the Economics Editor of Frankfurter Allgemaine Zeitung, Holger Steltzner, has argued, Britain leaving “would be permanent catastrophe for Germany. Without London, Berlin would lack a strong partner against Brussels’ mantra of centralisation." Merkel constantly relies on Cameron to do her dirty work, and without the UK, the ‘Northern’ block would lose its blocking minority (see graph) when decisions are made through majority voting, on a range of issues including annual EU spending, regulation and trade. [My emphasis]
I'm not sure how much weight to put on that but Mr. Persson knows much more and much better than me. Anyway, the more the Euro fanatics press on the greater the chances of an 'OUT' vote in 2017. Of course, that assumes 'Dim Dave' can win the election . . . yeeeeees, quite!
