We are less than a week away from the draft and it seems like we’re no closer to a consensus on where any of the top players in this year’s class will land. So, I guess that means my guess is as good as any, right?
1. Houston Texans select DE/OLB Jadaveon Clowney
He’s got a ready made support system in Houston and is widely regarded as the premiere talent in this class. The work ethic concerns seem to be a product of frustration with the consistent double and triple teams he saw and I don’t expect it to carry over into the pros. I’m still giving Greg Robinson a shot as a draft day surprise, but the fact is Clowney makes the Texans defense scary good and puts them right back in the playoff mix (yes, even with Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB.)
2. St. Louis Rams select OLB Khalil Mack
Credit to the guys at WalterFootball.com for this one, where their sources believe the Rams are leaning towards Mack as the best player available if they can’t deal the pick (which would be their first choice here at #2.) Mack played in a 3-4 scheme at Buffalo, but he has the size, speed and cover skills to survive in a 4-3. Like Clowney, his addition makes the Rams defense scary good. I’d hate to be the Tackle lined up against Robert Quinn with Mack peeking over his shoulder.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars select WR Sammy Watkins
The Jags get saved from a tough call here with Mack off the board. Cecil Shorts is solid and Mike Browns showed some flashes, there is a desperate need for a true #1 receiver. Watkins is only 6’1 but he plays big. He can give the Jags all the promise of Justin Blackmon without the suspensions. As a bonus he’s a sexy pick that can excite the fan base without the risk of jumping at a QB early.
4. Cleveland Browns select QB Blake Bortles
The Browns GM has said that taking a QB at #4 isn’t ideal, and well, it isn’t, but Sammy Watkins is off the board and Bortles actually seems like a solid fit. I see Bortles as Matt Schaub 2.0 for Kyle Shanahan, he’s got the size and the arm, but he’s also got mobility. Greg Robinson or Jake Matthews could be in play here to play RT opposite franchise stalwart Joe Thomas, but locking up Bortles early frees up that #26 pick to be used on the best available player at RT, CB or WR, all fairly deep positions of need for the Browns expected to still have top talent available at that #26 spot.
5. Oakland Raiders select WR Mike Evans
Another credit to the guys at Walter Football. I still really like Anthony Barr, especially with all the veterans Oakland brought in, but there’s pressure to hit with an immediate impact player at #5 and Evans is the best combination of talent and need. The signings of Penn and Howard take pressure off the tackle spots, especially in a deep class when you’re still waiting to see what Melenik Watson can do. Evans is a big-bodied Red Zone threat who can make plays down the field opposite James Jones and give Matt Schaub an Andre Johnson-type receiver to work with and make life infinitely easier for Matt McGloin or whichever rookie they end up drafting.
6. Atlanta Falcons select OT Greg Robinson
The Falcons need help on the line and they’re thrilled to get Robinson here at #6. The thought is that Robinson will line up on the right side for his rookie season, but if Sam Baker continues to struggle on the left Robinson could be plugged in as Matt Ryan’s blind side protector. Either way he improves the line as a unit and brings a forceful run blocking presence to a team that had trouble gaining yards on the ground last season.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers select QB Johnny Manziel
I just can’t get this idea out of my head. It’s a perfect fit for both team and player. With veteran QB Josh McCown acting as a mentor and offensive coordinator Jeff Tedford as his teacher Manziel could be great. I feel bad for Mike Glennon, but with the Texans and Vikings both looking for pocket passers with prototypical size and arm strength and a draft class that lacks in that area the Buccaneers should have no trouble getting at least a 2nd round pick this year or/and next year which is still a nice return on a 3rd string QB that doesn’t fit your system.
8. Minnesota Vikings select OLB/DE Anthony Barr
Barr has already been approached about possibly playing DE by the Cowboys and said he’s all for it. Barr is unpolished, having only played on the defensive side for a year, but new Vikings Head Coach Mike Zimmer knows how to work with raw talent and there seems to be little question about Barr’s work ethic. He may struggle early, but I’d expect him to be a truly disruptive force by the end of his rookie season.
9. Buffalo Bills select OT Jake Matthews
The Bills probably never thought Matthews would be available this late in the draft, but here he is, and while Eric Ebron and Haha Clinton-Dix are tempting, Matthews is the most talented prospect still on the board. Matthews would likely slide in at RT, and give the Bills two powerful bookends, equally adept at protecting EJ Manuel, and creating holes for CJ Spiller.
10. Detroit Lions select WR Odell Beckham
Beckham’s stock has been steadily rising for months and I think this is where he lands. The Lions heavy interest in Sammy Watkins early in the draft process says that they’re starting to prepare for life without Calvin Johnson. Beckham is an ideal pick as he can easily play inside while he gets up to pace in the NFL and give the Lions another speedy big play weapon that can create plays in space. Beckham’s versatility and work habits also make him ideal for a Jim Caldwell run offense.
